$牛来 10 October 19 analysis of Niulai
During the overnight drop in Bitcoin and BNB, Niulai longs were heavily liquidated, and the price fell to a low of 0.054. It then sharply rebounded to 0.058, but this rebound came without any increase in trading volume from longs or spot buyers. Net shorts barely covered, yet the funding rate surged to 0.118. This suggests existing longs are continuing to increase their positions, while there are no new buyers in the spot or futures markets. Market depth is thinning, and there are no signs of new capital entering. It looks more like existing long positions are getting increasingly crowded than like a healthy rally—which makes the market more fragile.
Ultimately, $牛来 still depends on Bitcoin. Bitcoin pulled back from 87,000 to 80,000, so of course Niulai fell. But didn’t we originally decide to buy $牛来 because we firmly believed the bull market had arrived? If you still believe that, hold on to it. If you think Bitcoin is going to fall to 30,000 and that we’re still in a bear market, then sell it now.
During the overnight drop in Bitcoin and BNB, Niulai longs were heavily liquidated, and the price fell to a low of 0.054. It then sharply rebounded to 0.058, but this rebound came without any increase in trading volume from longs or spot buyers. Net shorts barely covered, yet the funding rate surged to 0.118. This suggests existing longs are continuing to increase their positions, while there are no new buyers in the spot or futures markets. Market depth is thinning, and there are no signs of new capital entering. It looks more like existing long positions are getting increasingly crowded than like a healthy rally—which makes the market more fragile.
Ultimately, $牛来 still depends on Bitcoin. Bitcoin pulled back from 87,000 to 80,000, so of course Niulai fell. But didn’t we originally decide to buy $牛来 because we firmly believed the bull market had arrived? If you still believe that, hold on to it. If you think Bitcoin is going to fall to 30,000 and that we’re still in a bear market, then sell it now.
