What happened

On Friday night, October 16, Trump signed an order exempting tariffs under the Graham bill, which had only just become law on September 18. The bill had passed the Senate by a landslide, [86 to 11], showing that the bipartisan consensus for a hard-line trade crackdown was abruptly put on hold on the eve of its scheduled implementation on October 18.

Exemptions included tariffs of up to [500%] on goods imported directly from Russia, and tariffs of up to [100%] on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, including China and India. This means the extreme measure that could have severed global energy supply chains has been put on hold for now. Rubio said on October 17 that the economic impact would be assessed over [60 days], suggesting the White House does not dare trigger a trade shock right now and can only buy time to create room to maneuver.

The hard energy constraint in the numbers

Even as Zelensky publicly criticizes him and Graham’s sister Darline plans to call next week to apply pressure, Trump is still saying “We’ll figure it out” at Mar-a-Lago. The real leverage lies in oil prices: Brent crude is around [$109.95/barrel] and WTI around [$99], meaning global energy costs are nearing the threshold for a full-blown resurgence of inflation.

With diesel prices up about [70%] so far this year, domestic logistics and price pressures in the U.S. have reached a critical point ahead of the November election. The U.S.-Iran conflict and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia mean the IEA’s release of strategic reserves will do little to ease the immediate squeeze. Trump has even said Russia will supply the U.S. with more than [300,000 tons] of diesel—meaning keeping domestic fuel prices in check has become the overriding priority before the election.

The inflation chain and the flow of funds

Following the chain from sanctions to oil prices, inflation, and then bets on rate hikes, waiving tariffs and bringing in [300,000 tons] of diesel could directly cool inflation and ease market fears of Fed rate hikes. BTC is around [$81,450] (live data from Finnhub), meaning that with the tightening alarm temporarily on hold, deep-pocketed investors in the market are still providing solid support.

At the same time, ETH is around [$2,415.50] and $BNB is holding near [$722.49] (snapshot at 12:58 UTC on October 18), meaning major assets are staging a modest recovery in step with the broader market. During this period of intense macro-driven trading, investors favor assets with strong ecosystem moats, making $BNB a key barometer for gauging risk sentiment and fund flows in the market.

The focus of the standoff during the quiet period

The Fed is now in its quiet period ahead of the [October 28] FOMC meeting, meaning there will be little guidance from officials next week and market moves will depend entirely on investors’ own positioning. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are still supporting the oil-price premium, so the key question is whether this [60-day] period can pull oil prices down from [$109.95/barrel]. If you find these macro breakdowns useful, follow along—we’ll keep watching the market next week.