MSCI may give Saylor the boot, with $2.8 billion in passive funds hanging over his head. I’m not catching this falling knife.
Strategy holds 848,000 BTC, about 4% of the total supply, at an average cost of $75,440.
MSCI’s new rules take effect on November 30, and the list comes out on November 11. Passive funds could be forced to sell about $2.8 billion worth; if other indexes follow suit, that could add as much as another $8.8 billion.
MSTR closed down 9.56% on Friday at $136.83.
More importantly, its market cap is now below the value of the BTC it holds. The premium is gone.
I think what really hurts here isn’t that bit of selling pressure—it’s that the “issue shares to buy coins” flywheel has stopped turning. With the premium gone, issuing new shares means dilution, and Saylor’s steadiest source of marginal buying is drying up.
I’m staying out until the November 11 list is announced.
A sustained move back above $151 would suggest the bearish news is losing its bite; a break below Friday’s low of $134.11 would mean another leg down.
Also keep an eye on BTC. If it falls below Strategy’s average cost of $75,440, this whole story gets uglier.
Do you think it’ll be officially kicked out on November 11, or will MSCI go easy on it at the last minute?
$MSTR $BTC
#Bitcoin #USStocks
Strategy holds 848,000 BTC, about 4% of the total supply, at an average cost of $75,440.
MSCI’s new rules take effect on November 30, and the list comes out on November 11. Passive funds could be forced to sell about $2.8 billion worth; if other indexes follow suit, that could add as much as another $8.8 billion.
MSTR closed down 9.56% on Friday at $136.83.
More importantly, its market cap is now below the value of the BTC it holds. The premium is gone.
I think what really hurts here isn’t that bit of selling pressure—it’s that the “issue shares to buy coins” flywheel has stopped turning. With the premium gone, issuing new shares means dilution, and Saylor’s steadiest source of marginal buying is drying up.
I’m staying out until the November 11 list is announced.
A sustained move back above $151 would suggest the bearish news is losing its bite; a break below Friday’s low of $134.11 would mean another leg down.
Also keep an eye on BTC. If it falls below Strategy’s average cost of $75,440, this whole story gets uglier.
Do you think it’ll be officially kicked out on November 11, or will MSCI go easy on it at the last minute?
$MSTR $BTC
#Bitcoin #USStocks