I. In-Depth Analysis of the Bitcoin (BTC) Market: Under Short-Term Pressure, but Long-Term Support Remains
On October 18, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) spot was trading at $81,208.84, down approximately 0.37% over the past 24 hours. On the hourly chart, BTC has traded in a narrow range between $81,000 and $81,300 over the past few hours, with trading volume gradually declining, indicating that market participants are largely sitting on the sidelines.
II. Price Trend Analysis
Recently, Bitcoin encountered significant selling pressure after rising above $81,500 and failed to break decisively through the resistance of the 99-period exponential moving average (approximately $81,952). The price then pulled back toward $81,000 in search of support. BTC is currently trading below the middle Bollinger Band and close to the lower band at $80,955, suggesting that bears have the upper hand in the short term. Notably, the Parabolic SAR indicator remains above the price (around $82,019), further confirming the short-term downtrend. However, the psychological support at the $81,000 mark has held relatively firm: the price has bounced after testing it multiple times, indicating buying interest at this level.
III. Technical Indicator Analysis
Taken together, several technical indicators currently lean bearish. The MACD shows the DIF line at -115.35 and the DEA line at -26.78. The histogram remains negative, with a relatively large absolute value, indicating that bearish momentum is still being released. The 6-period RSI is 30.00, the 12-period RSI is 37.02, and the 24-period RSI is 42.54. The short-period RSI is nearing oversold territory, suggesting the possibility of a technical rebound. On the KDJ indicator, K has fallen to 15.26, D to 25.32, and J is at -4.87. All three lines are at low levels, and J has entered negative territory—a typical oversold signal. Bollinger Band width has narrowed, with the standard deviation falling from 383 to 44, indicating declining volatility and suggesting the market may be preparing to choose a direction. The ATR shows a 14-period average true range of 265.91, pointing to moderately low volatility. The Williams %R (WR) is -91.56, also in oversold territory.
IV. Market Sentiment Analysis
Overall market sentiment is cautious. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $910 million over the past two weeks, including a single-day outflow of $261 million on Wednesday. This was linked to higher-than-expected CPI data, which fueled concerns about interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, received regulatory approval to buy and sell digital assets, opening a new channel for global institutions to enter the market. On-chain data shows that some ancient whale addresses from 2012–2013 have become active again, moving approximately 416.7 BTC and adding localized supply pressure. Composite factor statistics show that 9 of 15 factors issued bearish signals and 5 issued bullish signals, putting the bearish share at 60%. Overall, the composite indicators point to a bearish outlook. However, oversold RSI readings and the KDJ’s low-level consolidation also suggest that a short-term rebound could occur at any time. Investors should watch whether support at $81,000 holds: a break below it could lead to a test of the $80,000 mark, while a sustained recovery would face initial resistance near $81,600.
V. Trending Tokens at a Glance
1. GTC (Gitcoin): Current price: $0.2738; 24-hour gain: 18.65%; trading volume: 10.12 million USDT; intraday high: $0.2897; intraday low: $0.2243.
2. QKC (QuarkChain): Current price: $0.002626; 24-hour gain: 11.51%; trading volume: 2.57 million USDT; intraday high: $0.00346; intraday low: $0.002333.
3. AMP: Current price: $0.000784; 24-hour gain: 10.42%; trading volume: 3.81 million USDT; intraday high: $0.000796; intraday low: $0.0007.
#比特币 #BTC分析 #Cryptocurrency Market
On October 18, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) spot was trading at $81,208.84, down approximately 0.37% over the past 24 hours. On the hourly chart, BTC has traded in a narrow range between $81,000 and $81,300 over the past few hours, with trading volume gradually declining, indicating that market participants are largely sitting on the sidelines.
II. Price Trend Analysis
Recently, Bitcoin encountered significant selling pressure after rising above $81,500 and failed to break decisively through the resistance of the 99-period exponential moving average (approximately $81,952). The price then pulled back toward $81,000 in search of support. BTC is currently trading below the middle Bollinger Band and close to the lower band at $80,955, suggesting that bears have the upper hand in the short term. Notably, the Parabolic SAR indicator remains above the price (around $82,019), further confirming the short-term downtrend. However, the psychological support at the $81,000 mark has held relatively firm: the price has bounced after testing it multiple times, indicating buying interest at this level.
III. Technical Indicator Analysis
Taken together, several technical indicators currently lean bearish. The MACD shows the DIF line at -115.35 and the DEA line at -26.78. The histogram remains negative, with a relatively large absolute value, indicating that bearish momentum is still being released. The 6-period RSI is 30.00, the 12-period RSI is 37.02, and the 24-period RSI is 42.54. The short-period RSI is nearing oversold territory, suggesting the possibility of a technical rebound. On the KDJ indicator, K has fallen to 15.26, D to 25.32, and J is at -4.87. All three lines are at low levels, and J has entered negative territory—a typical oversold signal. Bollinger Band width has narrowed, with the standard deviation falling from 383 to 44, indicating declining volatility and suggesting the market may be preparing to choose a direction. The ATR shows a 14-period average true range of 265.91, pointing to moderately low volatility. The Williams %R (WR) is -91.56, also in oversold territory.
IV. Market Sentiment Analysis
Overall market sentiment is cautious. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $910 million over the past two weeks, including a single-day outflow of $261 million on Wednesday. This was linked to higher-than-expected CPI data, which fueled concerns about interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, received regulatory approval to buy and sell digital assets, opening a new channel for global institutions to enter the market. On-chain data shows that some ancient whale addresses from 2012–2013 have become active again, moving approximately 416.7 BTC and adding localized supply pressure. Composite factor statistics show that 9 of 15 factors issued bearish signals and 5 issued bullish signals, putting the bearish share at 60%. Overall, the composite indicators point to a bearish outlook. However, oversold RSI readings and the KDJ’s low-level consolidation also suggest that a short-term rebound could occur at any time. Investors should watch whether support at $81,000 holds: a break below it could lead to a test of the $80,000 mark, while a sustained recovery would face initial resistance near $81,600.
V. Trending Tokens at a Glance
1. GTC (Gitcoin): Current price: $0.2738; 24-hour gain: 18.65%; trading volume: 10.12 million USDT; intraday high: $0.2897; intraday low: $0.2243.
2. QKC (QuarkChain): Current price: $0.002626; 24-hour gain: 11.51%; trading volume: 2.57 million USDT; intraday high: $0.00346; intraday low: $0.002333.
3. AMP: Current price: $0.000784; 24-hour gain: 10.42%; trading volume: 3.81 million USDT; intraday high: $0.000796; intraday low: $0.0007.
#比特币 #BTC分析 #Cryptocurrency Market