Flávio's kickback scheme or Lules?
Post
Yelena Riechman Brol
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#Eleicoes2026 in Brazil
First round: already took place on October 4.
Second round: October 25, 2026 (8 days to go).
Presidential race: Lula (PT) vs. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
The first round was very close (Flávio ~47% vs. Lula ~45%).
In the most recent second-round polls, most show a technical tie or a slight lead for Flávio (around 50–52% vs. 48–50%, depending on the polling firm). The numbers have fluctuated considerably.
The “war” is really intense, with a lot of attacks, legal battles, fake news accusations, and tension on social media and in debates. The atmosphere is very polarized, as usual.
In the first round, the right made significant gains in Congress:
In the Chamber of Deputies (513 seats):
The PL (Flávio’s party) won the largest bloc: 121 deputies.
Next came the PT (Lula’s party) with 70.
Overall, the most common analyses classify the right as holding a majority (around 55% of the seats, depending on how the Centrão and allied parties are grouped).
In the Senate (81 seats):
The PL also won the largest bloc: 28 senators.
The right consolidated a clear majority in the chamber.
These are the official results from October 4.
Now, about the logic that “those who voted for the right for deputy and senator also voted for the president”:
That’s a common perception and makes sense in many cases, but in practice voting in Brazil isn’t that straightforward. There’s quite a bit of split-ticket voting: someone may vote for a candidate for deputy or senator from one camp and for a president from another, for regional or personal reasons, or because they specifically dislike one of the candidates.
The second-round polls really are close (most show a technical tie or a slight lead for one side or the other).
Who are you supporting?
First round: already took place on October 4.
Second round: October 25, 2026 (8 days to go).
Presidential race: Lula (PT) vs. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
The first round was very close (Flávio ~47% vs. Lula ~45%).
In the most recent second-round polls, most show a technical tie or a slight lead for Flávio (around 50–52% vs. 48–50%, depending on the polling firm). The numbers have fluctuated considerably.
The “war” is really intense, with a lot of attacks, legal battles, fake news accusations, and tension on social media and in debates. The atmosphere is very polarized, as usual.
In the first round, the right made significant gains in Congress:
In the Chamber of Deputies (513 seats):
The PL (Flávio’s party) won the largest bloc: 121 deputies.
Next came the PT (Lula’s party) with 70.
Overall, the most common analyses classify the right as holding a majority (around 55% of the seats, depending on how the Centrão and allied parties are grouped).
In the Senate (81 seats):
The PL also won the largest bloc: 28 senators.
The right consolidated a clear majority in the chamber.
These are the official results from October 4.
Now, about the logic that “those who voted for the right for deputy and senator also voted for the president”:
That’s a common perception and makes sense in many cases, but in practice voting in Brazil isn’t that straightforward. There’s quite a bit of split-ticket voting: someone may vote for a candidate for deputy or senator from one camp and for a president from another, for regional or personal reasons, or because they specifically dislike one of the candidates.
The second-round polls really are close (most show a technical tie or a slight lead for one side or the other).
Who are you supporting?
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