Crypto pulls back and the P2P dollar moves in a different direction: I'd wait

My take on the week is cautious: I'd wait before chasing a crypto rebound or a rise in the P2P dollar. Bitcoin fell less than the major alternatives, while USDT became cheaper in bolívares and more expensive in soles. For those of us moving money between Venezuela and Peru, that difference matters: taking refuge in USDT doesn't mean getting the same result in local currency. The week's chart is attached.

In Venezuela, the daily average fell from 1012.964 Bs on 11/10 to 1003.125 Bs on 18/10, with a low of 999.245 Bs on 16/10. Today's reference rate is 1,002.70 Bs per USDT for a transfer of 1,000 USDT: -0.15% for the day and -0.83% for the week. The BCV rate rose from 876.80 Bs on 13/10 to 880.12 Bs on 16/10; today it stands at 881.07 Bs. Despite the P2P pullback, the current gap remains at +13.8%: a decline doesn't automatically mean it's getting closer to the official rate.

In Peru, the opposite happened. The average rose from 3,450 soles on 11/10 to 3,480 on 18/10, after touching 3,440 on 15/10. Today, the reference rate for exchanging 1,000 USDT is 3.48 soles, with +0.90% daily and +0.72% weekly. I wouldn’t assume this momentum will continue uninterrupted: I’d watch whether it holds at 3,480 or moves back toward 3,440. These are observed reference rates, not guaranteed support levels or guaranteed quotes for any transaction.

In crypto, $BTC ended at 81,139.41 USDT, down -3.14% for the week. ETH ended at 2,370.26 USDT, down -6.57%; SOL at 102.32 USDT, down -8.11%; and BNB at 712.50 USDT, down -5.53%. Bitcoin showed greater relative resilience, but it also closed in negative territory. Based on these figures, I wouldn’t call it a broadly strong market when all the major assets declined, or treat their current prices as confirmed support levels.

Next week, I’d watch whether Bitcoin stops falling and whether altcoins follow suit, rather than anticipate a recovery. In P2P, I’d keep an eye on the 999.245 Bs level in Venezuela, whether Peru stays at 3,480 soles, and how the gap versus the BCV changes. What would you want to see before exchanging local currency for USDT: Peru holding at 3,480 or Venezuela returning to 999.245 Bs?

📌 Every day: the P2P dollar rate at 10 a.m. and the day’s closing rate at 9 p.m. (Peru time). Follow me to receive them.