$BTC Crypto Academician: 10.19 Bitcoin (BTC) short-term moving averages have all been lost; the bulls have just one last line of defense
The comments section has split into two camps: one says the bull market is back and to go all-in, while the other says a crash is imminent and it’s time to run. Neither is right. The market won’t move a certain way just because you say it will. At 81000, both bulls and bears have a case, but your position size won’t wait around for you to make your case. My usual approach is to start with a small position when the direction is unclear: follow the higher-timeframe trend and trade the lower timeframe. There’s no doubt the broader trend is still bullish; the lower timeframe is bearish, so I look for entry points there to test a position.
As I’ve said before, the daily-chart structure of this rally from 57758 to 87385 remains intact. Price is now consolidating around the 61.8% Fibonacci level. EMA15 is at 82449 and EMA30 at 82102. Price has fallen below these two short-term moving averages, but EMA60 at 79575 and EMA90 at 77467 are still supporting it from below, so the broader trend remains intact. The MACD red bars are shrinking, and DIF has turned down but has not yet crossed below DEA—this is a normal pullback after an extended rally. The Bollinger middle band at 83303 is overhead resistance, while the lower band at 80218 is the key line of defense. As long as the daily candle does not decisively break below the lower band, the bullish structure remains in place.
The four-hour chart has made the short-term setup look a bit ugly. The EMAs are in a full bearish alignment, and price is hovering near the lower Bollinger band at 80862, with short-term selling pressure not yet fully exhausted. But two details are worth noting: first, the TD indicator has flashed consecutive green buy signals around 80000 and 81000; second, the MACD green bars are shrinking, and DIF has turned upward and crossed above DEA, meaning bearish momentum is fading. The 0.236 Fibonacci level at 81508 is the first rebound target. If price can’t break above it, it may continue to grind along the bottom.
Short-term levels to watch:
Long setup: 80500 to 80000, if price finds support; stop-loss at 79500, with targets at 81800 to 82800.
Short setup: 82500 to 83000, if upward momentum stalls; stop-loss 500 points away, with targets at 82000 to 81500.
For specific trades, rely on real-time order-book data. For more information, feel free to contact the author. This article was published with a delay and is for reference only. Trade at your own risk.
#BTC走势分析
The comments section has split into two camps: one says the bull market is back and to go all-in, while the other says a crash is imminent and it’s time to run. Neither is right. The market won’t move a certain way just because you say it will. At 81000, both bulls and bears have a case, but your position size won’t wait around for you to make your case. My usual approach is to start with a small position when the direction is unclear: follow the higher-timeframe trend and trade the lower timeframe. There’s no doubt the broader trend is still bullish; the lower timeframe is bearish, so I look for entry points there to test a position.
As I’ve said before, the daily-chart structure of this rally from 57758 to 87385 remains intact. Price is now consolidating around the 61.8% Fibonacci level. EMA15 is at 82449 and EMA30 at 82102. Price has fallen below these two short-term moving averages, but EMA60 at 79575 and EMA90 at 77467 are still supporting it from below, so the broader trend remains intact. The MACD red bars are shrinking, and DIF has turned down but has not yet crossed below DEA—this is a normal pullback after an extended rally. The Bollinger middle band at 83303 is overhead resistance, while the lower band at 80218 is the key line of defense. As long as the daily candle does not decisively break below the lower band, the bullish structure remains in place.
The four-hour chart has made the short-term setup look a bit ugly. The EMAs are in a full bearish alignment, and price is hovering near the lower Bollinger band at 80862, with short-term selling pressure not yet fully exhausted. But two details are worth noting: first, the TD indicator has flashed consecutive green buy signals around 80000 and 81000; second, the MACD green bars are shrinking, and DIF has turned upward and crossed above DEA, meaning bearish momentum is fading. The 0.236 Fibonacci level at 81508 is the first rebound target. If price can’t break above it, it may continue to grind along the bottom.
Short-term levels to watch:
Long setup: 80500 to 80000, if price finds support; stop-loss at 79500, with targets at 81800 to 82800.
Short setup: 82500 to 83000, if upward momentum stalls; stop-loss 500 points away, with targets at 82000 to 81500.
For specific trades, rely on real-time order-book data. For more information, feel free to contact the author. This article was published with a delay and is for reference only. Trade at your own risk.
#BTC走势分析