Old coins flood the market while institutions doze off

Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research ran the numbers—ETF net inflows plus corporate treasury purchases, minus the amount of coins dormant for over five years that have been reactivated—and found that the year-to-date net figure stood at negative 127,300 BTC as of October 18. Long-dormant addresses that hadn’t moved their coins in five years are offloading more than ETFs and corporate treasuries are buying. ETFs had only just clawed their way back to a positive $355 million in September, then saw a slight outflow in October, while corporate treasury buying has also gone quiet.

The positioning is crystal clear: layer upon layer of old coins are being distributed overhead, while ETF and corporate treasury demand below is still shrinking. A rally near the previous high is likely to get rejected and trigger another round of shakeouts. The big players have no reason to carry you at this level. When major altcoins follow BTC down, order-book depth gets even thinner—it only takes a couple of sharp wicks to clear out a batch of highly leveraged longs.

Those of you holding coins that have been sitting for five years—are you selling more, or holding on until the holidays? Longs, post your entry price. What number are you in line for the rooftop now?

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