Current ETH price: 2377.86
I. Current Status Across Timeframes
1. 1-hour chart
All EMAs are bearishly aligned (the 7, 34, 50, and 200-period moving averages are above the price); MACD remains below the zero line, with green bars continuing; RSI(6) = 22.35, entering oversold territory; OBV is also trending downward, with volume confirming the decline; open interest has edged up, indicating continued short positions being opened during the decline.
Interpretation: The market is oversold in the short term, so a modest technical rebound may occur. However, any rebound is likely to be weak and part of the ongoing downtrend.
2. 4-hour chart
Moving averages are exerting bearish pressure, and the price has fallen below all short-term EMAs; MACD is below the zero line and widening downward; OBV has been trending steadily lower, with volume continuing to flow out; KDJ is at a low level.
Key support: 2355; strong support: 2313; short-term resistance: 2407-2416.
2313 is the low from the previous move and the most important level to defend.
3. Daily Chart
The longer-term moving averages are turning down, and price has broken below the 200 EMA. MACD remains below the zero line; OBV continues to fall, with volume flowing out and insufficient buying volume. The daily chart is in a clear downtrend.
4. Weekly Chart
The weekly candlestick has pulled back after rising, and price is facing resistance. RSI has retreated from elevated levels. OBV has fallen steadily since its previous high, showing waning bullish momentum on the weekly timeframe. The weekly chart is shifting from consolidation to weakness, with bears in control over the longer term.
II. Two Scenarios for Monday
Scenario A (more likely: further downside after a weak rebound)
1. Monday open: The 1-hour RSI is oversold, so expect a small initial rebound.
Rebound target: 2407~2416 (the 4-hour EMA resistance zone).
At this level, moving averages and trapped positions will create double resistance, limiting the rebound.
2. After meeting resistance, the rebound turns down again and tests support:
First support: 2355; if 2355 fails to hold, price could go straight to 2313.
✅ Trigger condition: If price rebounds to around 2410 but OBV does not rise in tandem and volume fails to pick up, that signals a bearish counterattack.
Scenario B (less likely: immediate breakdown, with no rebound)
Price sells off immediately after Monday's open, quickly breaks below 2355, and tests the low at 2313.
If 2313 is decisively broken during the week, the next downside target is around 2280.
Trigger signals: OBV continues to fall after the open, OI rises rapidly, and short positions increase.
III. Overall Outlook for the Next Few Days (Within One Week)
The overall bias is bearish, with a preference for selling rallies. Avoid bottom-fishing lightly.
1. Priority outlook: rebound facing resistance, with repeated tests of the key low at 2313.
• If 2313 holds: expect several days of wide-range consolidation near the lows, between 2313 and 2440.
• If 2313 is decisively broken (4-hour close below 2313): downside opens up, with 2280 or even lower as the next targets.
2. Short-term bottom-fishing is only suitable for a speculative oversold bounce:
For a bounce trade, the stop-loss must be below 2310. If price breaks below that level, abandon the bottom-fishing idea immediately.
IV. Key Levels to Watch
🔴 Resistance:
First resistance: 2407-2416
Second resistance: 2440
🟢 Support:
First support: 2355
Strong support: 2313
If broken, next target: 2280
V. Key Indicators to Watch
1. OBV: If OBV fails to make a new high during a rebound, it is a false rebound (volume has not confirmed it).
2. OI: If OI rises rapidly during a rebound, it indicates that many short orders are waiting above.
3. RSI: If the 1-hour RSI rebounds into the 45-50 range, that is a resistance zone for the rebound.
ETHUSDTPerp2,395.03+3.33%