Gm, and happy weekend, everyone.
Today marks three consecutive weeks that the bulls have been actively dominating the market. The CPI and PPI news, coupled with the Iran war tensions, had their own effect on the market, causing longer term timeframe participants to cut their positions while short term sellers pushed the market down to the $79.5K range.
I think if this continues, we might see new lows this coming week unless longer term buyers react. In my opinion, this might be a good time to bid the market.
This weekend overview covers the profiles from 16/10 to 18/10.
16/10 Profile Review
Two of the possible scenarios I called out played out.
The 16/10 profile low is a weak low that needs to be repaired. The POC area was wide, although it has been revisited today. The POC area also didn’t migrate with price as the market moved lower, and the value area overlapped higher relative to the 15/10 value area.
17/10 Profile Review
Saturday is known for low market activity, and BTC moved to almost the exact low of the 16/10 profile. This is also a sign that buyers are still in the market.
The confidence of the day was low, as short-term timeframe sellers dominated the market. The high was a poor high, the profile structure was very weak, and the POC area was too wide. Overall, the market confidence for the day was low.
18/10 Profile Review
The market opened close to the middle of the previous day’s value area and one timeframed higher during the first few hours, taking out the previous day’s high.
This is the second time this week that the market has taken out a previous day’s poor high. The current high was exactly at the 3/09 high. The high was poor and had a three wide area, which suggests that the market was not interested in pushing price beyond that area.
The current low is a weak low, while the overall market confidence is currently low.
The 3 Day Overview
Short and longer term timeframe sellers are still active in the market. Across the three sessions, sellers continued to show more strength, but buyers remained active around the lower part of the range.
On 17/10, BTC traded close to the 16/10 low instead of extending lower. This shows that buyers are still responding around that area, although their response has not yet been strong enough to create a clean move higher.
The market has been trading inside the 16/10 profile range without any clear breakout. The 16/10 value area low was rejected, but price later found acceptance inside the 16/10 value area. This suggests that the market is still negotiating around that range rather than making a clear directional move.
The current highs remain poor or weak, and the current low is also poor. This leaves unfinished business on both sides of the profile. If buyers can push price above the 16/10 profile range and find acceptance there, the market could begin a new auction higher. If sellers break below the current range and find acceptance, we could see a move toward the unfinished business below.
Market Generated information
since the start of the week
12/10: Poor high that needs to be repaired.
13/10: Poor high that needs to be repaired.
14/10: Weak high that needs to be repaired.
15/10: Poor high that needs to be repaired.
16/10: Weak low that needs to be repaired.
17/10: Weak low that needs to be repaired
Current developing profile
18/10: Weak low that needs to be repaired
18/10: Poor low thta needs to be repaired(may change since the market is still developing)
For now, I’m observing the market and waiting to see where it closes at the end of the day. The close should give us more information about whether this range is temporary or whether the market is preparing for another directional move.
Thanks for reading. This is the first edition of my weekend overview, so I’d love to hear your thoughts. If you enjoyed it, leave a review and let me know what you would like to see in the next edition.
Weekly analysis review coming up tomorrow.