Samsung put USDC on 82 million Galaxy phones, yet Solana fell back to $103.
SOL’s fundamentals actually look pretty good this week.
Q3 on-chain app revenue reached $300 million, up 48% quarter over quarter; active addresses hit 1.88 million, a 13-month high; and the Alpenglow consensus upgrade went live on October 21, aiming to cut confirmation times to 150 milliseconds.
But the price isn’t buying it.
Since peaking at $124.9 in late September, SOL has fallen to $103, shedding 17% in a month. U.S. spot SOL ETFs have seen net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, with $12.7 million flowing out on October 16 alone.
The narrative and the money are at odds: fundamentals are laying the groundwork, while institutional money is still heading for the exits.
I think good news failing to lift the price is a signal in itself. Betting against institutional flows to “buy the fundamentals” doesn’t offer great odds, so I’d watch and wait rather than chase.
Invalidation: If SOL climbs back above its 50-day moving average at $109 and ETF flows turn into consecutive net inflows, this view is invalidated—the institutional money would be coming back.
During these first few days after Alpenglow went live, would you wait for ETF flows and price action to align, or do you think $103 is already the bottom?
$SOL $USDC
#Solana #ETF
This is not investment advice. DYOR; trading involves risk.
SOL’s fundamentals actually look pretty good this week.
Q3 on-chain app revenue reached $300 million, up 48% quarter over quarter; active addresses hit 1.88 million, a 13-month high; and the Alpenglow consensus upgrade went live on October 21, aiming to cut confirmation times to 150 milliseconds.
But the price isn’t buying it.
Since peaking at $124.9 in late September, SOL has fallen to $103, shedding 17% in a month. U.S. spot SOL ETFs have seen net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, with $12.7 million flowing out on October 16 alone.
The narrative and the money are at odds: fundamentals are laying the groundwork, while institutional money is still heading for the exits.
I think good news failing to lift the price is a signal in itself. Betting against institutional flows to “buy the fundamentals” doesn’t offer great odds, so I’d watch and wait rather than chase.
Invalidation: If SOL climbs back above its 50-day moving average at $109 and ETF flows turn into consecutive net inflows, this view is invalidated—the institutional money would be coming back.
During these first few days after Alpenglow went live, would you wait for ETF flows and price action to align, or do you think $103 is already the bottom?
$SOL $USDC
#Solana #ETF
This is not investment advice. DYOR; trading involves risk.