Bitcoin options on October 16: $1.47B$ expired, but the main event is on the 30th
This Friday, around 18,000 Bitcoin options contracts expired on Deribit, with a notional value of $1.47B$ . That represents 4.5% of options open interest. The put/call ratio is 1, and max pain—the level at which the largest number of options expire worthless—was at 83,000 $ (Greeks.live).
The numbers
→ Notional value: the value of Bitcoin represented by the contracts, not money changing hands
→ Max pain: $83,000, about 2,200 $ above Thursday’s price (around $80,800)
→ Implied volatility: around 35%, reflecting expectations of very little movement (TokenPost)
→ According to Deribit data as of October 15, puts dominate, with their largest concentrations between $76,000 and $80,000
The context: Bitcoin remained cautious on Friday, with the market concerned about possible U.S. strikes against Iran (CoinGape), following a hotter-than-expected CPI reading.
What this doesn’t tell us: max pain is not a forecast. It describes options sellers’ interests, not the direction of the price.
What’s next: the October 30 monthly expiry covers 148,348 contracts, more than 8 times as many as today’s expiry (CryptoTicker, Deribit data).
My analysis: today’s expiry carried little weight. What matters more is October 30, alongside the Fed meeting on the 28th. This is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
This is not investment advice.
In your view, which event will have the biggest impact before the end of the month: the Fed on the 28th or the options expiry on the 30th? #Binance
This Friday, around 18,000 Bitcoin options contracts expired on Deribit, with a notional value of $1.47B$ . That represents 4.5% of options open interest. The put/call ratio is 1, and max pain—the level at which the largest number of options expire worthless—was at 83,000 $ (Greeks.live).
The numbers
→ Notional value: the value of Bitcoin represented by the contracts, not money changing hands
→ Max pain: $83,000, about 2,200 $ above Thursday’s price (around $80,800)
→ Implied volatility: around 35%, reflecting expectations of very little movement (TokenPost)
→ According to Deribit data as of October 15, puts dominate, with their largest concentrations between $76,000 and $80,000
The context: Bitcoin remained cautious on Friday, with the market concerned about possible U.S. strikes against Iran (CoinGape), following a hotter-than-expected CPI reading.
What this doesn’t tell us: max pain is not a forecast. It describes options sellers’ interests, not the direction of the price.
What’s next: the October 30 monthly expiry covers 148,348 contracts, more than 8 times as many as today’s expiry (CryptoTicker, Deribit data).
My analysis: today’s expiry carried little weight. What matters more is October 30, alongside the Fed meeting on the 28th. This is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
This is not investment advice.
In your view, which event will have the biggest impact before the end of the month: the Fed on the 28th or the options expiry on the 30th? #Binance