A bull-market face, bear-market legs
The S&P is just 2% off its all-time high, but beneath the surface, 84% of its constituents are down more than 10%, 41% are down over 30%, and 17% have been cut in half. The index is being carried by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks: the face looks great, but half the legs are already broken.
At the start of the year, rate-cut forecasts were calling for three cuts in 2026. Now they’re pricing in a hike, and markets are even betting on three more by June 2027. With oil at $100 and inflation at 4%, valuation multiples are firmly capped. This rally is closely tied to the Nasdaq, and as long as rate-hike expectations persist, the main story will be rallies that fade. Big players are probably using the rate-cut narrative to distribute at elevated levels; chasing it just means catching their bags. Only when energy prices fall and the Fed turns dovish will liquidity start flowing back in. For now, we’re stuck grinding sideways at these levels—whoever gets impatient ends up on watch duty.
To those of you holding altcoins that have already been cut in half: drop your cost basis and let’s see how long the rooftop queue is.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The S&P is just 2% off its all-time high, but beneath the surface, 84% of its constituents are down more than 10%, 41% are down over 30%, and 17% have been cut in half. The index is being carried by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks: the face looks great, but half the legs are already broken.
At the start of the year, rate-cut forecasts were calling for three cuts in 2026. Now they’re pricing in a hike, and markets are even betting on three more by June 2027. With oil at $100 and inflation at 4%, valuation multiples are firmly capped. This rally is closely tied to the Nasdaq, and as long as rate-hike expectations persist, the main story will be rallies that fade. Big players are probably using the rate-cut narrative to distribute at elevated levels; chasing it just means catching their bags. Only when energy prices fall and the Fed turns dovish will liquidity start flowing back in. For now, we’re stuck grinding sideways at these levels—whoever gets impatient ends up on watch duty.
To those of you holding altcoins that have already been cut in half: drop your cost basis and let’s see how long the rooftop queue is.
$BTC $ETH $SOL