#美国PPI同比升至6.3%
The odds of a rate hike have fallen to 17%. Is the market breathing a sigh of relief? The sigh of relief you’re breathing was bought with Waller’s “silence.”
At the IMF, Waller refused to prejudge the October meeting. During his remarks, the odds of an October rate hike plunged from around 30% to 17%. But core CPI, released that same week, rose 0.3% month over month for the second consecutive month, beating expectations, while PPI was up 6.3% year over year, its highest level in four years. Inflation hasn’t gone away; the Fed is just choosing not to talk about it for now.
Bitcoin bounced from 79,694 to 82,000, with $929 million in liquidations, including $777 million in long positions. This rebound is essentially a sentiment recovery after short covering and a leverage flush—not a move backed by spot buying. The 82,200–82,600 range is near-term resistance, while the 50-day moving average sits at 80,500–80,800. Price is caught between them. This isn’t a trend; it’s a fragile balance.
So the premise of a “straight-up rally” simply doesn’t hold. A rally needs fresh capital, not just one less thing for the Fed to say. From here, watch only two things: whether the dollar can stay weak, and whether 82,000 can genuinely turn from resistance into support. If it can’t hold, today’s 17% will be tomorrow’s joke.
$BTC #沃什闭嘴 #加息概率17
The odds of a rate hike have fallen to 17%. Is the market breathing a sigh of relief? The sigh of relief you’re breathing was bought with Waller’s “silence.”
At the IMF, Waller refused to prejudge the October meeting. During his remarks, the odds of an October rate hike plunged from around 30% to 17%. But core CPI, released that same week, rose 0.3% month over month for the second consecutive month, beating expectations, while PPI was up 6.3% year over year, its highest level in four years. Inflation hasn’t gone away; the Fed is just choosing not to talk about it for now.
Bitcoin bounced from 79,694 to 82,000, with $929 million in liquidations, including $777 million in long positions. This rebound is essentially a sentiment recovery after short covering and a leverage flush—not a move backed by spot buying. The 82,200–82,600 range is near-term resistance, while the 50-day moving average sits at 80,500–80,800. Price is caught between them. This isn’t a trend; it’s a fragile balance.
So the premise of a “straight-up rally” simply doesn’t hold. A rally needs fresh capital, not just one less thing for the Fed to say. From here, watch only two things: whether the dollar can stay weak, and whether 82,000 can genuinely turn from resistance into support. If it can’t hold, today’s 17% will be tomorrow’s joke.
$BTC #沃什闭嘴 #加息概率17
