A slow bleed is more agonizing for people sitting on the sidelines than a crash: $ETH slid from 2700 all the way to 2414. It seemed like the right call not to buy, but we have to admit that the reason we’ve been waiting for may only appear after prices start rising. Buy now, and you fear getting in halfway up; stay out, and you fear being left behind after volume picks up.
The market is basically stuck. It’s down just 3.63% over 30 days, but that long red candle on October 8, when it plunged from 2697 to 2573, damaged the chart structure. The rebound that followed couldn’t reclaim 2500, and volume shrank from the teens of billions to 6–7 billion. Sellers aren’t panicking, and buyers aren’t pressing their advantage.
What concerns me more is that $ETH is still 51% below its ATH, down 37.8% over the past year, with no new narrative. A rebound from here looks more like an oversold bounce than confirmation from the money flow.
The real risk lies in the daily candle: a high-volume hold above 2500 would signal a stronger recovery; a low-volume break below 2363 would mean further downside. For now, the market hasn’t shown its hand.
So I’ll leave you with a question: A) Take a small position around 2400 and exit if it breaks below 2363; or B) wait for a high-volume reclaim of 2500 before entering, accepting about a 4% higher cost. Which would you choose?
The market is basically stuck. It’s down just 3.63% over 30 days, but that long red candle on October 8, when it plunged from 2697 to 2573, damaged the chart structure. The rebound that followed couldn’t reclaim 2500, and volume shrank from the teens of billions to 6–7 billion. Sellers aren’t panicking, and buyers aren’t pressing their advantage.
What concerns me more is that $ETH is still 51% below its ATH, down 37.8% over the past year, with no new narrative. A rebound from here looks more like an oversold bounce than confirmation from the money flow.
The real risk lies in the daily candle: a high-volume hold above 2500 would signal a stronger recovery; a low-volume break below 2363 would mean further downside. For now, the market hasn’t shown its hand.
So I’ll leave you with a question: A) Take a small position around 2400 and exit if it breaks below 2363; or B) wait for a high-volume reclaim of 2500 before entering, accepting about a 4% higher cost. Which would you choose?