$ICNT The biggest risk with this coin right now isn’t that it’s gone up too much—it’s that the order book is too thin.
ICNT perpetuals on Gate are currently around 0.2056, up 14.7% over 24 hours, with a daily high of 0.2738 and low of 0.1524. Volume is about 8.76 million U, and the funding rate is -0.032% per 8 hours. Over the same period, BTC is around 82,075 (+0.6%). The broader market barely moved; this is its own show. It looks like a rally, but over the past 24 hours it plunged from 0.27 to 0.15 before recovering to 0.20. The range was close to 80%, so the percentage change is the least useful number here.
First, why did it move? It closed at 0.1099 on the 14th and 0.1796 on the 16th, a gain of more than 60% in two days. According to CMC, a trader shilled ICNT on the 16th, and the project team hasn’t issued any new announcements. The only news worth mentioning is still that old September update about storage capacity exceeding 45 PB. Put simply, this is sentiment-driven trading, not a fundamentals-driven move.
Now, let’s look at the derivatives market:
At midnight, the one-hour volume was about 1.97 million U. Price shot straight from 0.1854 to 0.2738, liquidating about 14,600 U worth of shorts in that hour, before closing back at 0.2247. After that spike, it kept sliding, hitting 0.1524 at 10 a.m.—a drop of more than 40% from the high.
Open interest in U terms was about 640,000 U at midnight, but by 9 a.m. it was down to just 310,000 U—cut in half. Total perpetual open interest is only around 500,000–600,000 U. Orders worth a few hundred thousand U can push the price around.
At 5 p.m., open interest was about 810,000 U as price was pushed down to 0.1813. At 6 p.m., open interest was about 950,000 U as price was pulled back up to 0.2279. In two hours, stops on both sides were swept.
My take goes against the crowd chasing the rally: I wouldn’t chase longs here.
The 0.2279 level is interesting. The high at 1 a.m. was 0.2279, and the high at 6 p.m. was also 0.2279. It failed to hold above that level both times. When a sentiment-driven rally can’t clear the previous high on its second try, it’s likely to turn back and look for liquidity.
But I wouldn’t recommend chasing shorts right now either. The funding rate is negative, so shorts are paying, and open interest is so thin that crowded shorts can easily get wiped out by a single wick. The spike at midnight is a case in point.
My approach is to wait: if price breaks below 0.1813—the low from the 5 p.m. sweep—on strong volume, then watch to see whether buyers step in at 0.1524. Until then, I’m staying away from shorts.
What if I’m wrong? If price breaks above 0.228 on strong volume and holds there for an hour, that would suggest the sentiment-driven rally has a second leg, with 0.2738 as the next level to test. Shorts should admit they’re wrong and not stubbornly hold on.
One more reminder: about 19.7 million tokens are scheduled to unlock on November 3. Tokenomics.com’s data shows that each unlock over the past six months was followed by a 7%–30% pullback within 14 days. Spot holders should keep that in mind.
Back to this morning’s $ETH : I said chasing shorts below 2,380 was asking to get rekt; I’d admit I was wrong if price broke below 2,355 on strong volume, and if it reclaimed 2,421 and then cleared 2,441, shorts would get trapped. After 8 a.m., the low stayed above 2,397, and 2,355 didn’t break, so shorts who chased didn’t get an edge. At 11 a.m., it touched 2,430; at 5 p.m., about 230 million U pushed it to 2,428. It reclaimed 2,421, but is still short of 2,441. It’s now around 2,417. Neither condition has been triggered, and over the weekend it just churned between 2,400 and 2,430. “Wait for the second leg down in chips after the U.S. market opens on Monday” hasn’t reached its test yet, so I’m not calling it right or wrong for now.
These are just my personal views and do not constitute advice.
ICNT perpetuals on Gate are currently around 0.2056, up 14.7% over 24 hours, with a daily high of 0.2738 and low of 0.1524. Volume is about 8.76 million U, and the funding rate is -0.032% per 8 hours. Over the same period, BTC is around 82,075 (+0.6%). The broader market barely moved; this is its own show. It looks like a rally, but over the past 24 hours it plunged from 0.27 to 0.15 before recovering to 0.20. The range was close to 80%, so the percentage change is the least useful number here.
First, why did it move? It closed at 0.1099 on the 14th and 0.1796 on the 16th, a gain of more than 60% in two days. According to CMC, a trader shilled ICNT on the 16th, and the project team hasn’t issued any new announcements. The only news worth mentioning is still that old September update about storage capacity exceeding 45 PB. Put simply, this is sentiment-driven trading, not a fundamentals-driven move.
Now, let’s look at the derivatives market:
At midnight, the one-hour volume was about 1.97 million U. Price shot straight from 0.1854 to 0.2738, liquidating about 14,600 U worth of shorts in that hour, before closing back at 0.2247. After that spike, it kept sliding, hitting 0.1524 at 10 a.m.—a drop of more than 40% from the high.
Open interest in U terms was about 640,000 U at midnight, but by 9 a.m. it was down to just 310,000 U—cut in half. Total perpetual open interest is only around 500,000–600,000 U. Orders worth a few hundred thousand U can push the price around.
At 5 p.m., open interest was about 810,000 U as price was pushed down to 0.1813. At 6 p.m., open interest was about 950,000 U as price was pulled back up to 0.2279. In two hours, stops on both sides were swept.
My take goes against the crowd chasing the rally: I wouldn’t chase longs here.
The 0.2279 level is interesting. The high at 1 a.m. was 0.2279, and the high at 6 p.m. was also 0.2279. It failed to hold above that level both times. When a sentiment-driven rally can’t clear the previous high on its second try, it’s likely to turn back and look for liquidity.
But I wouldn’t recommend chasing shorts right now either. The funding rate is negative, so shorts are paying, and open interest is so thin that crowded shorts can easily get wiped out by a single wick. The spike at midnight is a case in point.
My approach is to wait: if price breaks below 0.1813—the low from the 5 p.m. sweep—on strong volume, then watch to see whether buyers step in at 0.1524. Until then, I’m staying away from shorts.
What if I’m wrong? If price breaks above 0.228 on strong volume and holds there for an hour, that would suggest the sentiment-driven rally has a second leg, with 0.2738 as the next level to test. Shorts should admit they’re wrong and not stubbornly hold on.
One more reminder: about 19.7 million tokens are scheduled to unlock on November 3. Tokenomics.com’s data shows that each unlock over the past six months was followed by a 7%–30% pullback within 14 days. Spot holders should keep that in mind.
Back to this morning’s $ETH : I said chasing shorts below 2,380 was asking to get rekt; I’d admit I was wrong if price broke below 2,355 on strong volume, and if it reclaimed 2,421 and then cleared 2,441, shorts would get trapped. After 8 a.m., the low stayed above 2,397, and 2,355 didn’t break, so shorts who chased didn’t get an edge. At 11 a.m., it touched 2,430; at 5 p.m., about 230 million U pushed it to 2,428. It reclaimed 2,421, but is still short of 2,441. It’s now around 2,417. Neither condition has been triggered, and over the weekend it just churned between 2,400 and 2,430. “Wait for the second leg down in chips after the U.S. market opens on Monday” hasn’t reached its test yet, so I’m not calling it right or wrong for now.
These are just my personal views and do not constitute advice.