Daily Update

I originally expected the first 4-hour downswing in Bitcoin’s correction to reach around 77,000. So over the past week, I shorted ETH twice: the first trade was opened at 2,560 and closed near 2,350, and the second was opened at 2,463 and closed near 2,392. However, Bitcoin has remained relatively strong in the short term, and none of this week’s pullbacks has decisively broken below 80,000. Based on the current price action, the first 4-hour downswing in the daily correction likely ended near 79,800.

The first 4-hour pullback was shallow, dropping by around $7,400. I currently expect the second 4-hour rebound to be underway. Once it ends, there should be a third 4-hour downswing, which will break below 79,800 again.

How deep the third 4h downtrend can fall depends, in my view, mainly on the strength of the second rebound. If the second 4h rebound only reaches the 83000–84000 range, or merely touches around 84000 before dropping quickly, then there is still a very good chance that the third 4h decline will reach around 72500, or even wick down to around 70600. If the second 4h rebound can push into the 85000–86000 range, then the third 4h decline may not break below 74000, and could instead stay within the 74000–76600 range.

Medium- to short-term trend direction

4h main direction: The short-term expectation is for the second 4h rebound within a daily-chart pullback to be underway. Watch its strength.

1h direction: The third 1h rebound within the current 4h rebound is underway.

BTC short-term outlook

As market conditions can change quickly in the short term, this article can only offer a forecast based on market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term traders should keep an eye on the latest market moves. This is for reference only.

1H:

1) In the short term, the third 1h rebound is expected to be underway, with a target range of 83000–84000.

2) Since this 4h rebound is relatively short in duration, it may form a five-wave 1h structure. There may therefore be a fourth-wave pullback and a fifth-wave rebound after the third-wave rebound.

3) Pay close attention to the strength of the fifth 1h rebound. My subjective view is that it may only reach around 84000 or 84500 before starting to fall.

4) This 4h rebound is expected to end before next weekend, after which the third 4h decline may continue from the end of the month into early November.

15M:

1) The first 15-minute rebound within the 1h rebound is currently expected to be underway, with the structure shown by the white arrow in the chart above.

2) First, watch to see whether the price breaks above 82800 in the short term. After that, a second 15-minute pullback and a third 15-minute rebound are expected.

ETH

1) ETH also appears to be entering a 4h rebound. If it can break above 2441 in the short term, that would essentially confirm a 4h rebound.

2) The third 1h rebound within the 4h rebound is currently expected to be underway. Watch around 2500 or higher for this rebound.

3) The 4h rebound is also expected to form five waves. Normally, the fifth 1h rebound should reach above 2579, with the 2580–2640 range worth watching.

4) After the 4h rebound ends, there should be a third 4h decline, which may continue below 2318. Watch 2200 and the 2000–2200 range as targets.