$STRK The way it’s falling matters more than how far it has fallen: it’s not one huge red candle breaking through support, but a steady grind lower on declining volume, while dip-buying longs are still adding to their positions.
First, the numbers on Gate perpetuals: STRK is now around 0.0630, down 11.9% over 24 hours, with a daily high of 0.0726 and low of 0.0622. Volume is about 5.63 million U, and the funding rate is +0.005%—longs are still paying. Meanwhile, BTC is around 82,150 (+0.6%). The broader market is up, so this is weakness specific to STRK.
The longer-term picture is even clearer: STRK opened at 0.0555 on October 9, surged to 0.1266 on October 11, and is now at 0.063. Nearly 90% of this rally has been given back.
A breakdown of price and volume points to three things:
First, the only genuine volume spike came at 20:00 last night: about 1.13 million U, as price plunged directly from 0.0716 to 0.0652. Around 54,000 U in long positions were liquidated that hour. Since then, there have been no hourly candles with volume above one million U; most have been in the 60,000–400,000 U range.
Second, each rebound has peaked lower than the last: 0.0689 at 22:00, 0.0683 at 2:00 a.m., and 0.0649 at 17:00 today. Each rebound has come on lower volume, and sellers have shown up at every peak.
Third, open interest fell and then rose. It was about 3.49 million U at 17:00 yesterday, then dropped to around 2.55 million U by 5:00 this morning—a decline of nearly 30%, suggesting longs were cutting their losses. But after that, the price kept falling while open interest rose back to around 2.86 million U. The long/short account ratio also climbed from 1.36 to 1.53. The price is falling while more accounts are opening longs, which suggests dip buyers are entering—not shorts adding to their positions.
As for the backdrop, reports from foreign media have mainly pointed to the October 15 unlock of 127 million STRK tokens, the L1 governance vote ending on the 22nd, and on-chain activity falling sharply from its October 11 peak. The rally was driven by expectations and leverage; both are now fading.
My view: the structure remains bearish, and I’m not buying the dip. With this combination of a low-volume decline and dip-buying longs adding to their positions, the most common outcome is longs being slowly worn down until they stop out—not a V-shaped reversal.
Key level to watch: 0.0622 was today’s low at 15:00. A high-volume break below it, accompanied by falling open interest, would mean this batch of dip buyers is cutting its positions. The next level to watch would be the round-number mark at 0.06.
What would prove me wrong: an hourly volume spike of one million U or more and a recovery above 0.0689 would break the pattern of successively lower rebound highs and invalidate my bearish view. Before the vote results come out on the 22nd, a move in either direction could be amplified.
A follow-up on yesterday’s $STRK call: price was around 0.0708 at the time. I said I was bearish and wouldn’t buy the dip, and that a high-volume move back above 0.0748 would signal strength. It never touched 0.0748; instead, it plunged to 0.0652 at 20:00 that evening and is now at 0.063. The direction was right. But I only gave a condition for a bullish reversal, not a downside level, so anyone looking to short with the trend had no reference point. I’m adding one this time.
This is only an observation of market conditions, not a recommendation.
First, the numbers on Gate perpetuals: STRK is now around 0.0630, down 11.9% over 24 hours, with a daily high of 0.0726 and low of 0.0622. Volume is about 5.63 million U, and the funding rate is +0.005%—longs are still paying. Meanwhile, BTC is around 82,150 (+0.6%). The broader market is up, so this is weakness specific to STRK.
The longer-term picture is even clearer: STRK opened at 0.0555 on October 9, surged to 0.1266 on October 11, and is now at 0.063. Nearly 90% of this rally has been given back.
A breakdown of price and volume points to three things:
First, the only genuine volume spike came at 20:00 last night: about 1.13 million U, as price plunged directly from 0.0716 to 0.0652. Around 54,000 U in long positions were liquidated that hour. Since then, there have been no hourly candles with volume above one million U; most have been in the 60,000–400,000 U range.
Second, each rebound has peaked lower than the last: 0.0689 at 22:00, 0.0683 at 2:00 a.m., and 0.0649 at 17:00 today. Each rebound has come on lower volume, and sellers have shown up at every peak.
Third, open interest fell and then rose. It was about 3.49 million U at 17:00 yesterday, then dropped to around 2.55 million U by 5:00 this morning—a decline of nearly 30%, suggesting longs were cutting their losses. But after that, the price kept falling while open interest rose back to around 2.86 million U. The long/short account ratio also climbed from 1.36 to 1.53. The price is falling while more accounts are opening longs, which suggests dip buyers are entering—not shorts adding to their positions.
As for the backdrop, reports from foreign media have mainly pointed to the October 15 unlock of 127 million STRK tokens, the L1 governance vote ending on the 22nd, and on-chain activity falling sharply from its October 11 peak. The rally was driven by expectations and leverage; both are now fading.
My view: the structure remains bearish, and I’m not buying the dip. With this combination of a low-volume decline and dip-buying longs adding to their positions, the most common outcome is longs being slowly worn down until they stop out—not a V-shaped reversal.
Key level to watch: 0.0622 was today’s low at 15:00. A high-volume break below it, accompanied by falling open interest, would mean this batch of dip buyers is cutting its positions. The next level to watch would be the round-number mark at 0.06.
What would prove me wrong: an hourly volume spike of one million U or more and a recovery above 0.0689 would break the pattern of successively lower rebound highs and invalidate my bearish view. Before the vote results come out on the 22nd, a move in either direction could be amplified.
A follow-up on yesterday’s $STRK call: price was around 0.0708 at the time. I said I was bearish and wouldn’t buy the dip, and that a high-volume move back above 0.0748 would signal strength. It never touched 0.0748; instead, it plunged to 0.0652 at 20:00 that evening and is now at 0.063. The direction was right. But I only gave a condition for a bullish reversal, not a downside level, so anyone looking to short with the trend had no reference point. I’m adding one this time.
This is only an observation of market conditions, not a recommendation.