📰 There’s been a pretty scary claim going around the community lately: if U.S. stocks correct by 20%, BTC will plunge all the way to 10,000 USDT.
Darkfost’s take is that this prediction is too extreme and lacks sufficient historical evidence. From current levels, a drop to 10,000 USDT would mean a drawdown of around 87%; based on historical data, the drawdown would be closer to 92%.
🔥 The only time BTC has ever experienced a drawdown greater than 92% was in 2011. The maximum drawdowns in 2015 and 2019 were 82.5% and 82.6%, respectively; in 2022, it was 74.4%; and the largest drawdown recorded so far in 2026 is 54.2%.
👀 U.S. stocks and BTC are indeed correlated, but they don’t always follow the same script. In 2018, when the S&P 500 corrected by about 19.53%, BTC fell around 80%. But in April 2025, when the S&P 500 also corrected by more than 19%, BTC fell only around 22%.
Honestly, equating “a 20% correction in U.S. stocks” directly with “BTC falling to 10,000 USDT” feels more like forcing the most extreme historical case onto the present. Whether the market will remain under pressure is up for discussion, but the evidence currently doesn’t support a move of that magnitude.
🤔 If U.S. stocks really do correct by 20%, do you think BTC is more likely to repeat 2018 or behave more like it did in April 2025?
#BTC #美股 #加密市场 #MarketAnalysis
Darkfost’s take is that this prediction is too extreme and lacks sufficient historical evidence. From current levels, a drop to 10,000 USDT would mean a drawdown of around 87%; based on historical data, the drawdown would be closer to 92%.
🔥 The only time BTC has ever experienced a drawdown greater than 92% was in 2011. The maximum drawdowns in 2015 and 2019 were 82.5% and 82.6%, respectively; in 2022, it was 74.4%; and the largest drawdown recorded so far in 2026 is 54.2%.
👀 U.S. stocks and BTC are indeed correlated, but they don’t always follow the same script. In 2018, when the S&P 500 corrected by about 19.53%, BTC fell around 80%. But in April 2025, when the S&P 500 also corrected by more than 19%, BTC fell only around 22%.
Honestly, equating “a 20% correction in U.S. stocks” directly with “BTC falling to 10,000 USDT” feels more like forcing the most extreme historical case onto the present. Whether the market will remain under pressure is up for discussion, but the evidence currently doesn’t support a move of that magnitude.
🤔 If U.S. stocks really do correct by 20%, do you think BTC is more likely to repeat 2018 or behave more like it did in April 2025?
#BTC #美股 #加密市场 #MarketAnalysis