BTC short-term holders’ holdings rise to 4.08 million coins
Expectations of a Fed rate hike in October have fallen back to around 17%, bringing a round of repricing in expectations. Warsh has made no advance commitments regarding monetary policy in October or December. Current market pricing reflects the view that the Fed is still waiting for more economic data to come in.
Inflationary pressures have not fully subsided, with CPI up 3.7% year over year and PPI up 6.3%. The Fed merely postponing a rate hike does not mean the inflation problem has been solved, and the market could easily underestimate the potential for tightening in December.
For BTC, the decline in rate-hike odds has supported a valuation recovery, but is unlikely to spark sustained buying. If oil prices, Treasury yields, or inflation expectations rebound, rate-hike expectations could rise rapidly again, weighing on the market.
Looking ahead, the focus should not be solely on the October FOMC meeting; December rate pricing also deserves close attention. Near-term expectations have eased somewhat, but the policy stance further out remains hawkish, and asset prices are likely to continue fluctuating.
There is room for market positioning as expectations are repriced, but portfolios should leave enough margin for error in case incoming data reverse the trend.
#BTC #美联储10月加息概率降至约17%
Expectations of a Fed rate hike in October have fallen back to around 17%, bringing a round of repricing in expectations. Warsh has made no advance commitments regarding monetary policy in October or December. Current market pricing reflects the view that the Fed is still waiting for more economic data to come in.
Inflationary pressures have not fully subsided, with CPI up 3.7% year over year and PPI up 6.3%. The Fed merely postponing a rate hike does not mean the inflation problem has been solved, and the market could easily underestimate the potential for tightening in December.
For BTC, the decline in rate-hike odds has supported a valuation recovery, but is unlikely to spark sustained buying. If oil prices, Treasury yields, or inflation expectations rebound, rate-hike expectations could rise rapidly again, weighing on the market.
Looking ahead, the focus should not be solely on the October FOMC meeting; December rate pricing also deserves close attention. Near-term expectations have eased somewhat, but the policy stance further out remains hawkish, and asset prices are likely to continue fluctuating.
There is room for market positioning as expectations are repriced, but portfolios should leave enough margin for error in case incoming data reverse the trend.
#BTC #美联储10月加息概率降至约17%