The market’s defining feature lately has been repeated swings and tug-of-war, with bulls and bears continuously battling and testing key levels to build momentum. The 80,000 support below and 84,500 resistance above have both been tested repeatedly, but each time the market has fallen just short of a decisive breakout. Overall sentiment is hovering at the threshold between bull and bear markets, and the battle between buyers and sellers has reached a fever pitch.
On the macro front, U.S. September CPI came in above market expectations, highlighting persistent inflation and briefly fueling expectations of a Fed rate hike. A stronger dollar weighed on risk assets, making it the main reason Bitcoin previously fell below 80,000. Fed officials later struck a more dovish tone, prompting markets to scale back rate-hike expectations and sentiment to recover. The market rebounded from its lows, with prices no longer falling on bearish news. Fund flows remain divided: inflows into spot ETFs have slowed, with money flowing in and out in turns. However, leading investment banks such as Citi continue to take a bullish view over the medium to long term and have raised their target prices for BTC and ETH. Leverage-driven battles in the futures market remain intense, with frequent wicks and clusters of liquidations around key levels as bulls and bears continue to shake out positions. Meanwhile, elevated oil prices have raised concerns about inflation, and volatility in U.S. tech stocks has further amplified short-term swings in the crypto market.
Current news flow is bearish in the short term but bullish over the medium to long term. No major catalyst capable of breaking the market out of its range has emerged so far. Price action continues to fluctuate within the 80,000–84,500 range as the market awaits guidance from the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting.
From a technical perspective, the market has recently staged a pressured recovery. This stems from the earlier failed attempt to break decisively above the 87,000 high, which has steadily depleted bullish momentum. Now that this round of selling pressure has been fully absorbed, the market is likely to return to its previous trend. As mentioned several times before, the current market is in a bottoming and base-building phase. Bitcoin has tested the 80,000 level repeatedly, but bears have consistently failed to drive a sustained decline. The effectiveness of support at this level has been confirmed time and again. The current strategy is to build a core position in stages in the direction of the trend, using key support levels as a guide.
Trading recommendations for the days ahead
$BTC Bitcoin: Build long positions in stages at 80,300, 80,800, and 81,300. Upside targets: 83,000, 85,500, 87,000, and 93,000.
$ETH Ethereum: Build long positions in stages at 2,400, 2,380, and 2,350. Upside targets: 2,480, 2,560, 2,660, and 2,900.