The seventh bearish candle is hanging on the screen, and my finger is already hovering over the buy button. There’s just one thought in my head: surely it can’t go down every day?
$W surged to 0.0317 a week ago. Since then, it’s closed with six straight bearish daily candles. Today’s candle hasn’t turned green either, and it’s now hovering around 0.0134—nearly 60% below its high.
That urge to buy the more it falls is called the gambler’s fallacy: the brain treats the market like a coin toss. After several tails in a row, you start thinking heads is “due” next. But candlesticks have no memory, and they don’t owe you a green candle. Falling for a long time or falling a lot is not, by itself, a reason to buy.
Next time you want to buy a coin because it’s “fallen enough,” cover up the previous candlesticks and write down one reason that has nothing to do with “falling a lot” or “falling for a long time.” If you can’t think of one, you’re not waiting for a rebound—you’re relying on luck.
Is there a coin you’re still holding because you told yourself, “It has to rebound eventually”?
#交易心理 #赌徒谬误 $w
$W surged to 0.0317 a week ago. Since then, it’s closed with six straight bearish daily candles. Today’s candle hasn’t turned green either, and it’s now hovering around 0.0134—nearly 60% below its high.
That urge to buy the more it falls is called the gambler’s fallacy: the brain treats the market like a coin toss. After several tails in a row, you start thinking heads is “due” next. But candlesticks have no memory, and they don’t owe you a green candle. Falling for a long time or falling a lot is not, by itself, a reason to buy.
Next time you want to buy a coin because it’s “fallen enough,” cover up the previous candlesticks and write down one reason that has nothing to do with “falling a lot” or “falling for a long time.” If you can’t think of one, you’re not waiting for a rebound—you’re relying on luck.
Is there a coin you’re still holding because you told yourself, “It has to rebound eventually”?
#交易心理 #赌徒谬误 $w