$牛’s afternoon signal that the decline had stabilized lasted only one hour: the price had just reclaimed the short-term moving average when it was quickly pushed back down in the following hour, while open interest continued to rise. This is the two-way volatility caused by crowded leverage near the lows.

At 14:57, spot was around 0.05996. A full 1-hour candle closed at 0.06042, briefly triggering the condition of reclaiming the EMA20 in the morning. In the following hour, the low was 0.05843 and the close was 0.05863, confirming that the recovery had failed. Perpetual open interest was still up 0.71% over 24 hours and 0.25% over the past 3 hours, with the funding rate around 0.005%. The verifiable facts are that the breakout failed but positions have not been exited; the market inference is that new leverage continues to take opposing bets, with no reliable direction established yet.

There was no formal entry plan beforehand, so no trade was entered. A sustained reclaim of 0.0602 and a breakout above 0.0608 would restore signs of stabilization; holding above 0.0626 would improve the picture. If 0.0584 is breached again, watch 0.0572 and 0.0560. #牛来 #午间复盘 #Risk watch