Let’s check the score first: I wrote three things during last night’s overnight session, and today’s market gave us all the answers.
SOL’s make-or-break level was 105. I said I’d admit I was wrong if it broke below that. It closed at 104.02 last night, so I admitted it. Today it’s still at 104.27, and the funding rate is still in negative territory (-0.0007%). The bears are definitely enjoying this.
BTC’s reversal confirmation level was 82600. Its 24-hour high today was only 82480—it didn’t even reach the level. I’m calling it: this reversal attempt isn’t happening.
The only good news is that 81k held. This morning’s low was 80813.6, just 4 bucks above yesterday’s low. It held, and the price bounced back to $BTC 81,897, up 0.44% over 24 hours.
The morning market can be summed up in one word: grind. $BTC moved by only about 1.5 points. $ETH 2422 was down a slight 0.19%, but its funding rate of 0.0066% was the highest of the three. Longs are still willing to pay the funding—that means they haven’t completely given up. $SOL 104.27 was down 0.48%, and its funding rate turned negative. The futures market is directly betting it will stay weak.
This afternoon, watch two things: can $BTC reach 82072 (this morning’s high)? Only if it gets there will it have a shot at testing the 82600 reversal level. On the downside, watch 80813. If today’s low breaks, the psychological 80000 level is next in the fight.
The invalidation condition is set in stone: if $BTC reclaims 82600 and holds above it today, my “this reversal isn’t happening” call is void. I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong at the start of tonight’s post.
All the data was pulled from live markets this morning (OKX public market data, 24-hour highs and lows, plus funding rates)—no guesswork. By the way, SOL’s funding rate has turned negative. Do you think it can get back above 105 this afternoon? Let’s talk in the comments.
#BTC #MiddayMarketRecap
SOL’s make-or-break level was 105. I said I’d admit I was wrong if it broke below that. It closed at 104.02 last night, so I admitted it. Today it’s still at 104.27, and the funding rate is still in negative territory (-0.0007%). The bears are definitely enjoying this.
BTC’s reversal confirmation level was 82600. Its 24-hour high today was only 82480—it didn’t even reach the level. I’m calling it: this reversal attempt isn’t happening.
The only good news is that 81k held. This morning’s low was 80813.6, just 4 bucks above yesterday’s low. It held, and the price bounced back to $BTC 81,897, up 0.44% over 24 hours.
The morning market can be summed up in one word: grind. $BTC moved by only about 1.5 points. $ETH 2422 was down a slight 0.19%, but its funding rate of 0.0066% was the highest of the three. Longs are still willing to pay the funding—that means they haven’t completely given up. $SOL 104.27 was down 0.48%, and its funding rate turned negative. The futures market is directly betting it will stay weak.
This afternoon, watch two things: can $BTC reach 82072 (this morning’s high)? Only if it gets there will it have a shot at testing the 82600 reversal level. On the downside, watch 80813. If today’s low breaks, the psychological 80000 level is next in the fight.
The invalidation condition is set in stone: if $BTC reclaims 82600 and holds above it today, my “this reversal isn’t happening” call is void. I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong at the start of tonight’s post.
All the data was pulled from live markets this morning (OKX public market data, 24-hour highs and lows, plus funding rates)—no guesswork. By the way, SOL’s funding rate has turned negative. Do you think it can get back above 105 this afternoon? Let’s talk in the comments.
#BTC #MiddayMarketRecap