Rate hike expectations have collapsed—bulls, don’t rush in
According to the latest CME data, the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October is 84.5%, while the chance of a 25 bp hike is down to just 15.5%. A week ago, that figure was still above 30%—expectations have cooled quickly.
In the short term, this is positive for sentiment, but don’t mistake it for a trend reversal. Price is still stuck below key resistance, and easing rate expectations should be viewed only as short-term support—not enough to drive a sustained breakout. Spot trading volume and the cost of holding futures positions remain the real factors determining direction. We’ll need the probability of a rate hike to fall below 15% before we see fresh capital coming in. Chasing longs at this level could leave you caught in a false breakout.
With rate hike expectations cooling, are you using the rebound to reduce your position or waiting for a pullback to add?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
According to the latest CME data, the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October is 84.5%, while the chance of a 25 bp hike is down to just 15.5%. A week ago, that figure was still above 30%—expectations have cooled quickly.
In the short term, this is positive for sentiment, but don’t mistake it for a trend reversal. Price is still stuck below key resistance, and easing rate expectations should be viewed only as short-term support—not enough to drive a sustained breakout. Spot trading volume and the cost of holding futures positions remain the real factors determining direction. We’ll need the probability of a rate hike to fall below 15% before we see fresh capital coming in. Chasing longs at this level could leave you caught in a false breakout.
With rate hike expectations cooling, are you using the rebound to reduce your position or waiting for a pullback to add?
$BTC $ETH $SOL