For those holding $BTC , the hardest question right now isn’t whether to cut their losses, but whether to admit at this point that “the rebound has already failed.” On September 22, a surge in volume sent the price soaring from $81K to $86.6K. But it failed to hold there for a whole month, then drifted down for ten days to $81.4K, with trading volume shrinking from $61B that day to $14B. The 30-day gain of +6.33% is still showing, but that was thanks to late September and has almost nothing to do with the market now.
What concerns me more is what the shrinking volume is telling us. The $81K range has been tested three times: a low of $81,685 on October 9, and another retest at $81,523 yesterday. If this is accumulation, we should see volume pick back up to above $35B—not keep shrinking day after day like it is now. Current trading volume can’t support a decent rebound, nor can it confirm that a genuine bottom is in.
The risk is that if $81K breaks on heavy volume, those previous attempts to “hold” will turn into distribution platforms, and the next support level to watch will be $79K. On the other hand, if the price reclaims $84K on rising volume, then this recovery will be confirmed—and there’ll be time to talk about adding to your position or continuing to wait.
So if you’re holding, all you need to do next is watch the volume: a rebound without rising volume is probably a false move; if the price rises on strong volume, then you can decide whether to believe in it. Your position can wait, but the market won’t wait forever to make its choice. Are you still waiting for $BTC to see a surge in volume, or have you already decided not to wait?
What concerns me more is what the shrinking volume is telling us. The $81K range has been tested three times: a low of $81,685 on October 9, and another retest at $81,523 yesterday. If this is accumulation, we should see volume pick back up to above $35B—not keep shrinking day after day like it is now. Current trading volume can’t support a decent rebound, nor can it confirm that a genuine bottom is in.
The risk is that if $81K breaks on heavy volume, those previous attempts to “hold” will turn into distribution platforms, and the next support level to watch will be $79K. On the other hand, if the price reclaims $84K on rising volume, then this recovery will be confirmed—and there’ll be time to talk about adding to your position or continuing to wait.
So if you’re holding, all you need to do next is watch the volume: a rebound without rising volume is probably a false move; if the price rises on strong volume, then you can decide whether to believe in it. Your position can wait, but the market won’t wait forever to make its choice. Are you still waiting for $BTC to see a surge in volume, or have you already decided not to wait?