$PONS is down -70.56% from its ATH, and this is the figure most easily misread. What’s really weighing on the market isn’t $0.97, but the $0.71 price from three weeks ago. On September 23, the price peaked as trading volume surged to $103M; now it’s down to just 40% of that level. Once a psychological anchor is established, every rebound gets compared with a price level that no longer has anywhere near the same liquidity. So those holding back from adding to their positions, while those watching from the sidelines don’t dare buy in either.
Trading volume paints an even clearer picture: it has fallen from nearly $100M to $18M, suggesting that both buyers and sellers have stepped away—not that there’s been panic selling. The market cap is still $192M, while daily trading volume is down to just over $20M. The tokens are still locked up, but now they’re concentrated in the hands of a few. At this point, any moderately large order can send the price a long way in either direction. Down 58% over 30 days and 22% over 7 days, the decline isn’t over yet, but its slope has clearly flattened. Yesterday’s low-volume bullish candle at $0.284 looks more like a test than the high-volume candle at $0.28 the day before.
What I care more about is whether $0.33 can be reclaimed on strong volume. That’s the level left behind by the concentrated trading between October 15 and 17. Only if the price holds around $0.28 and volume returns to above $50M can we talk about a structural recovery. If it keeps grinding along on shrinking volume, the cost of waiting for confirmation will be missing the first leg up.
That’s where the disagreement lies: waiting for a high-volume breakout above $0.33 means trading upside for certainty; entering in stages around $0.28 means trading risk for upside. Are you betting that volume will return first, or that price will?
Trading volume paints an even clearer picture: it has fallen from nearly $100M to $18M, suggesting that both buyers and sellers have stepped away—not that there’s been panic selling. The market cap is still $192M, while daily trading volume is down to just over $20M. The tokens are still locked up, but now they’re concentrated in the hands of a few. At this point, any moderately large order can send the price a long way in either direction. Down 58% over 30 days and 22% over 7 days, the decline isn’t over yet, but its slope has clearly flattened. Yesterday’s low-volume bullish candle at $0.284 looks more like a test than the high-volume candle at $0.28 the day before.
What I care more about is whether $0.33 can be reclaimed on strong volume. That’s the level left behind by the concentrated trading between October 15 and 17. Only if the price holds around $0.28 and volume returns to above $50M can we talk about a structural recovery. If it keeps grinding along on shrinking volume, the cost of waiting for confirmation will be missing the first leg up.
That’s where the disagreement lies: waiting for a high-volume breakout above $0.33 means trading upside for certainty; entering in stages around $0.28 means trading risk for upside. Are you betting that volume will return first, or that price will?