Nine crypto companies have just formed the “Quantum Alliance” to establish a common “post-quantum security standard” for Bitcoin and other public blockchains.
The most immediate warning is that the public keys for about 6.04 million BTC (30.2% of the total supply) have already been exposed on-chain, including roughly 1.1 million coins believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto. The risk is that, if a sufficiently powerful quantum computer becomes available in the future, attackers could use these public keys to derive the corresponding private keys and take control of the assets.
But it’s important to be clear: no machine can carry out such an attack today. Alliance members disagree on the timeline for the threat. The CTO of Postquant Labs believes such a computer could realistically emerge by 2028. The CRO of The Vault says no one knows the exact date, but estimates keep getting shorter; custodians should be asking whether they can migrate in time if the threat arrives sooner than expected.
The alliance is currently focused on four areas: blockchain migration, post-quantum zero-knowledge proofs, wallet protection, and cross-chain compatibility. Members also disagree over whether the exposed BTC should be frozen or moved. Some argue that this is a governance decision for the Bitcoin network, not one the industry should make unilaterally.
The countdown to the quantum threat may be shorter than we think.
The most immediate warning is that the public keys for about 6.04 million BTC (30.2% of the total supply) have already been exposed on-chain, including roughly 1.1 million coins believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto. The risk is that, if a sufficiently powerful quantum computer becomes available in the future, attackers could use these public keys to derive the corresponding private keys and take control of the assets.
But it’s important to be clear: no machine can carry out such an attack today. Alliance members disagree on the timeline for the threat. The CTO of Postquant Labs believes such a computer could realistically emerge by 2028. The CRO of The Vault says no one knows the exact date, but estimates keep getting shorter; custodians should be asking whether they can migrate in time if the threat arrives sooner than expected.
The alliance is currently focused on four areas: blockchain migration, post-quantum zero-knowledge proofs, wallet protection, and cross-chain compatibility. Members also disagree over whether the exposed BTC should be frozen or moved. Some argue that this is a governance decision for the Bitcoin network, not one the industry should make unilaterally.
The countdown to the quantum threat may be shorter than we think.