BTC repeated the 2022 drop, but not the bottom 🔥
First major plunge in both cycles: exactly −52%.
In 2022, it bottomed lower and lower until US$ 15.476.
In 2026, it formed a double bottom at US$ 57.800 and set a new high at US$ 87.395.
📊 Chart now
🔹 Price: US$ 81.370
🔹 Weekly: above the middle Bollinger Band (71.5K and rising), MACD positive, OBV rising
🔹 Daily: StochRSI at 3, oversold
🔹 Rejected at 87.4K, just above the ETFs’ average price (86K)
🌎 Macro headwinds
🔸 US CPI at 3.7%
🔸 Fed raised rates in September to 3.75–4.00%
🔸 10-year yield at 5.25% and DXY at 102.9
🔸 Positive funding: long positions are still leveraged
🔸 US$ 11 billion in options expire on Oct 30, with max pain at 78–79K
📅 Dates: Fed meeting on Oct 28, options expiry on Oct 30, US elections on Nov 3
In other words: the long-term chart says the bottom was in June, but the macro backdrop and calendar are the same as in 2022. Before the next rally, the price is most likely to seek the weekly middle band, which should be at 73–75K in the coming weeks. There, it coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement (72.6K).
🎯 Entry plan in 3 parts
✅ 1/3 at 78K (options max pain)
✅ 1/3 at 75–76K (38.2% Fibonacci)
✅ 1/3 when it touches the middle band, at 72–74K
🛑 Stop: weekly close below the middle band. A wick below followed by a close above is a sign of strength.
🚀 Targets: 87.4K, 89.5K, and 95K
⚠️ If it loses the middle band on a weekly close, a retest of 58–60K is back in play
👉 Follow me for updates. I’ll update the plan after the Fed meeting.
⚠️ This is not investment advice. Crypto is a high-risk asset: trade with risk management and avoid excessive leverage.
#Bitcoin #BTC #fomc
First major plunge in both cycles: exactly −52%.
In 2022, it bottomed lower and lower until US$ 15.476.
In 2026, it formed a double bottom at US$ 57.800 and set a new high at US$ 87.395.
📊 Chart now
🔹 Price: US$ 81.370
🔹 Weekly: above the middle Bollinger Band (71.5K and rising), MACD positive, OBV rising
🔹 Daily: StochRSI at 3, oversold
🔹 Rejected at 87.4K, just above the ETFs’ average price (86K)
🌎 Macro headwinds
🔸 US CPI at 3.7%
🔸 Fed raised rates in September to 3.75–4.00%
🔸 10-year yield at 5.25% and DXY at 102.9
🔸 Positive funding: long positions are still leveraged
🔸 US$ 11 billion in options expire on Oct 30, with max pain at 78–79K
📅 Dates: Fed meeting on Oct 28, options expiry on Oct 30, US elections on Nov 3
In other words: the long-term chart says the bottom was in June, but the macro backdrop and calendar are the same as in 2022. Before the next rally, the price is most likely to seek the weekly middle band, which should be at 73–75K in the coming weeks. There, it coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement (72.6K).
🎯 Entry plan in 3 parts
✅ 1/3 at 78K (options max pain)
✅ 1/3 at 75–76K (38.2% Fibonacci)
✅ 1/3 when it touches the middle band, at 72–74K
🛑 Stop: weekly close below the middle band. A wick below followed by a close above is a sign of strength.
🚀 Targets: 87.4K, 89.5K, and 95K
⚠️ If it loses the middle band on a weekly close, a retest of 58–60K is back in play
👉 Follow me for updates. I’ll update the plan after the Fed meeting.
⚠️ This is not investment advice. Crypto is a high-risk asset: trade with risk management and avoid excessive leverage.
#Bitcoin #BTC #fomc