BTC repeated the 2022 decline, but not the bottom 🔥
First major drop in both cycles: exactly −52%.
In 2022, it kept making lower lows until $15,476.
In 2026, it formed a double bottom at $57,800 and a new high at $87,395.
📊 Chart now
🔹 Price: $81,370
🔹 Weekly: above the middle Bollinger Band (71.5K), positive MACD, rising OBV
🔹 Daily: StochRSI at 3, deeply oversold
🔹 Rejected at 87.4K, just above the ETFs’ average price (86K)
🌎 Macro headwinds
🔸 U.S. CPI at 3.7%
🔸 Fed raised rates in September to 3.75–4.00%
🔸 10-year yields at 5.25% and DXY at 102.9
🔸 Positive funding: longs are still leveraged
🔸 $11B in options expire on Oct 30, with max pain at 78–79K
📅 Dates: Fed on Oct 28, options expiry on Oct 30, U.S. elections on Nov 3
In other words: the long-term chart says the bottom came in June, but the macro conditions and calendar are the same as in 2022. A March 2023-style correction is the most likely scenario before the next leg up.
🎯 Entry plan
✅ Scale into a position in the 72–78K zone, preferably with negative funding and fear in the market
✅ Stop: weekly close below 71.5K
✅ Targets: 87.4K, 89.5K, and 95K
⚠️ If it loses 71.5K on the weekly, a retest of 58–60K is back in play
👉 Follow me to keep up with what happens next. I’ll update the plan after the Fed meeting.
⚠️ This is not investment advice. Crypto is a high-risk asset: trade with risk management and avoid excessive leverage.
#Bitcoin #BTC #fomc $BTC $ETH $BNB
First major drop in both cycles: exactly −52%.
In 2022, it kept making lower lows until $15,476.
In 2026, it formed a double bottom at $57,800 and a new high at $87,395.
📊 Chart now
🔹 Price: $81,370
🔹 Weekly: above the middle Bollinger Band (71.5K), positive MACD, rising OBV
🔹 Daily: StochRSI at 3, deeply oversold
🔹 Rejected at 87.4K, just above the ETFs’ average price (86K)
🌎 Macro headwinds
🔸 U.S. CPI at 3.7%
🔸 Fed raised rates in September to 3.75–4.00%
🔸 10-year yields at 5.25% and DXY at 102.9
🔸 Positive funding: longs are still leveraged
🔸 $11B in options expire on Oct 30, with max pain at 78–79K
📅 Dates: Fed on Oct 28, options expiry on Oct 30, U.S. elections on Nov 3
In other words: the long-term chart says the bottom came in June, but the macro conditions and calendar are the same as in 2022. A March 2023-style correction is the most likely scenario before the next leg up.
🎯 Entry plan
✅ Scale into a position in the 72–78K zone, preferably with negative funding and fear in the market
✅ Stop: weekly close below 71.5K
✅ Targets: 87.4K, 89.5K, and 95K
⚠️ If it loses 71.5K on the weekly, a retest of 58–60K is back in play
👉 Follow me to keep up with what happens next. I’ll update the plan after the Fed meeting.
⚠️ This is not investment advice. Crypto is a high-risk asset: trade with risk management and avoid excessive leverage.
#Bitcoin #BTC #fomc $BTC $ETH $BNB