Market reactions during earnings season—taking notes one point at a time
Let’s finish reading out the US stock numbers first, then decide whether crypto follows.
Numbers first, opinions later.
VIX 19.99 (5-day +31.43%)
Gold 4,181 (5-day -0.23%, Yahoo)
Nasdaq 26,140 (5-day -4.48%, Yahoo)
My take: The Nasdaq is down 4.48% over 5 days, lagging the S&P 500 at -1.95%. Growth stocks are falling behind. Chasing AI coins now means taking on the beta that US stocks have already started dumping.
Crypto comparison: BTC 81366 (24h -0.55%), ETH 2394 (-1.36%). ETH’s 24h change of -1.36% is weaker than BTC’s -0.55%; the exchange rate is 0.02942. Capital is retreating into BTC; I’m staying on the sidelines with altcoins for now.
What I’m watching next: VIX is now at 19.99. If it rises above 18, I’ll cut my futures position in half. I’m not going to argue with the US market’s closing price.
My position: Watching from the sidelines. The price hasn’t picked a direction, and leverage hasn’t paid off. Opening a position now would just be working for the exchange.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily data (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. I won’t fill in missing numbers.
Would you dare add to your position at this funding rate?
#美股 #BTC #TradingWatch
Useful takeaway: Around mainnet upgrades, gas and bridge failures show up before price narratives do.
Inspiration: The Nasdaq is clearly outperforming the S&P 500: stick to growth exposure; don’t make up a broad-based bull market.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are shown as dashes):
BTC 81,366 -0.55% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,394 -1.36% ETH/BTC 0.02942
S&P 500 7,659 -1.95% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 26,140 -4.48% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 -0.78% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.99 +31.43% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0044% Open interest 7.67B (24h -0.23) Long/short ratio 1.7442 Binance USDⓈ-M
Corroborating context: People elsewhere are discussing “bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks” - Google News. I’m treating it only as background; the conclusions are still based on the numbers in the main text.
These are my personal views; see the sources in the main text for the figures. This is not a trading instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Let’s finish reading out the US stock numbers first, then decide whether crypto follows.
Numbers first, opinions later.
VIX 19.99 (5-day +31.43%)
Gold 4,181 (5-day -0.23%, Yahoo)
Nasdaq 26,140 (5-day -4.48%, Yahoo)
My take: The Nasdaq is down 4.48% over 5 days, lagging the S&P 500 at -1.95%. Growth stocks are falling behind. Chasing AI coins now means taking on the beta that US stocks have already started dumping.
Crypto comparison: BTC 81366 (24h -0.55%), ETH 2394 (-1.36%). ETH’s 24h change of -1.36% is weaker than BTC’s -0.55%; the exchange rate is 0.02942. Capital is retreating into BTC; I’m staying on the sidelines with altcoins for now.
What I’m watching next: VIX is now at 19.99. If it rises above 18, I’ll cut my futures position in half. I’m not going to argue with the US market’s closing price.
My position: Watching from the sidelines. The price hasn’t picked a direction, and leverage hasn’t paid off. Opening a position now would just be working for the exchange.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily data (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. I won’t fill in missing numbers.
Would you dare add to your position at this funding rate?
#美股 #BTC #TradingWatch
Useful takeaway: Around mainnet upgrades, gas and bridge failures show up before price narratives do.
Inspiration: The Nasdaq is clearly outperforming the S&P 500: stick to growth exposure; don’t make up a broad-based bull market.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are shown as dashes):
BTC 81,366 -0.55% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,394 -1.36% ETH/BTC 0.02942
S&P 500 7,659 -1.95% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 26,140 -4.48% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 -0.78% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.99 +31.43% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0044% Open interest 7.67B (24h -0.23) Long/short ratio 1.7442 Binance USDⓈ-M
Corroborating context: People elsewhere are discussing “bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks” - Google News. I’m treating it only as background; the conclusions are still based on the numbers in the main text.
These are my personal views; see the sources in the main text for the figures. This is not a trading instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL