May 2026
CRCL once reached 140
I had a lot of paper gains at the time
but didn’t sell a single share
I’ve ridden this kind of roller coaster
2–3 times this year
After that, the share price pulled back 60%
and most of my gains were wiped out
Maybe because I’m not using leverage
and my cost basis isn’t very high
the swings between paper gains and losses don’t really affect me much
It just doesn’t feel like the volatility is all that extreme
Maybe it’s because I used to be a seasoned gambler who averaged down on paper losses
I can handle bigger swings
and I’m pretty resilient under pressure
I see a lot of people feeling really stressed by this kind of volatility
but honestly, I feel like it’s not that bad
The volatility was much higher around its IPO last year
from the 30s to 300, then back below 100
This year it’s mostly traded between 50 and 140
Hopefully it breaks above 140, its 2026 high, soon
CRCL’s new quarterly earnings report comes out on 11/04
That’s only about two weeks away
USDC issuance seems to be fluctuating around 700–750
so there may not be much of a surprise in net income or revenue
Any gains in the stock price have mainly been driven by rate hikes
If there’s a surprise, it’ll be in Arc’s data
I’ve always thought
using USDC for gas when transferring USDC is more convenient
and Arc is something they should have built a long time ago
Let’s see whether revenue from sources beyond interest spreads generated by Arc
can change CRCL’s revenue mix
So far this year, CRCL’s share price has mostly risen around earnings
The U.S. stock market is about to enter a new earnings season in November
combined with expectations of continued rate hikes
volatility won’t be any lower than it was in the first half of the year
CRCL once reached 140
I had a lot of paper gains at the time
but didn’t sell a single share
I’ve ridden this kind of roller coaster
2–3 times this year
After that, the share price pulled back 60%
and most of my gains were wiped out
Maybe because I’m not using leverage
and my cost basis isn’t very high
the swings between paper gains and losses don’t really affect me much
It just doesn’t feel like the volatility is all that extreme
Maybe it’s because I used to be a seasoned gambler who averaged down on paper losses
I can handle bigger swings
and I’m pretty resilient under pressure
I see a lot of people feeling really stressed by this kind of volatility
but honestly, I feel like it’s not that bad
The volatility was much higher around its IPO last year
from the 30s to 300, then back below 100
This year it’s mostly traded between 50 and 140
Hopefully it breaks above 140, its 2026 high, soon
CRCL’s new quarterly earnings report comes out on 11/04
That’s only about two weeks away
USDC issuance seems to be fluctuating around 700–750
so there may not be much of a surprise in net income or revenue
Any gains in the stock price have mainly been driven by rate hikes
If there’s a surprise, it’ll be in Arc’s data
I’ve always thought
using USDC for gas when transferring USDC is more convenient
and Arc is something they should have built a long time ago
Let’s see whether revenue from sources beyond interest spreads generated by Arc
can change CRCL’s revenue mix
So far this year, CRCL’s share price has mostly risen around earnings
The U.S. stock market is about to enter a new earnings season in November
combined with expectations of continued rate hikes
volatility won’t be any lower than it was in the first half of the year