$FIL just turned its breakout into an “opening at the top, liquidation at the bottom” show—but seeing the price fall doesn’t mean you have to rush in and provide liquidity.
The latest H1 candle closed at 1.088700, still below the structural low at 1.116400, after a liquidity sweep up to 1.222900 before closing back below the 1.202733 cluster.
The sell candle closed at 1.086900 on volume 1.98× the average of the previous 20 candles, while the latest bounce reached only 0.52×—leaning toward a potential Wyckoff distribution transitioning into markdown, but not enough to confirm a complete cycle.
The heatmap shows estimated liquidation bands at 1.112–1.116 above and 1.051–1.053 below, but a liquidity map isn’t a bus schedule that price is obliged to follow.
Bearish bias — no entry yet: will the next bounce be rejected at supply, or will impatient Shorts become fuel for the very green candle they’re dismissing?
CONDITIONAL SHORT MAP — $FIL / H1
• Trigger: H1 closes below 1.116400 — confirmed
• Entry: 1.180000–1.190000
• Confirmation: failed retest of supply, with an H1 candle rejecting higher prices
• SL: 1.226000
• TP1: 1.116400 → 1.67R
• TP2: 1.058200 → 3.09R
• Setup invalidation: H1 closes above 1.222900
BEARISH BIAS — NO ENTRY YET
R is calculated from the midpoint of 1.185000, excluding fees and slippage; recalculate based on the actual fill price.
The midpoint is 8.85% above the closing price; if price bounces there, reassess the structure before confirming an entry.
Don’t chase Shorts or sell straight into support; if there’s no valid retest, stay out!!!
The latest H1 candle closed at 1.088700, still below the structural low at 1.116400, after a liquidity sweep up to 1.222900 before closing back below the 1.202733 cluster.
The sell candle closed at 1.086900 on volume 1.98× the average of the previous 20 candles, while the latest bounce reached only 0.52×—leaning toward a potential Wyckoff distribution transitioning into markdown, but not enough to confirm a complete cycle.
The heatmap shows estimated liquidation bands at 1.112–1.116 above and 1.051–1.053 below, but a liquidity map isn’t a bus schedule that price is obliged to follow.
Bearish bias — no entry yet: will the next bounce be rejected at supply, or will impatient Shorts become fuel for the very green candle they’re dismissing?
CONDITIONAL SHORT MAP — $FIL / H1
• Trigger: H1 closes below 1.116400 — confirmed
• Entry: 1.180000–1.190000
• Confirmation: failed retest of supply, with an H1 candle rejecting higher prices
• SL: 1.226000
• TP1: 1.116400 → 1.67R
• TP2: 1.058200 → 3.09R
• Setup invalidation: H1 closes above 1.222900
BEARISH BIAS — NO ENTRY YET
R is calculated from the midpoint of 1.185000, excluding fees and slippage; recalculate based on the actual fill price.
The midpoint is 8.85% above the closing price; if price bounces there, reassess the structure before confirming an entry.
Don’t chase Shorts or sell straight into support; if there’s no valid retest, stay out!!!