The Fed raised interest rates, Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2002, yet Bitcoin rose 43% in Q3—the on-chain data says this recovery is just getting started.
Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional jointly released their Q4 market outlook on October 15. Their central view: BTC has moved from bottoming into an early recovery, and they remain positive on Q4. A few key data points:
1. BTC rose 43% in Q3 to close at $83,600, outperforming gold and U.S. stocks. The report argues that this rally was driven not by a recovery in risk appetite, but by demand for alternatives to the U.S. dollar: BTC’s daily return correlation with gold was 0.61, and with the U.S. Dollar Index it was -0.43.
2. On-chain sentiment has clearly improved: NUPL rose from 0.11 to 0.38, moving from “Hope/Fear” back to “Optimism/Anxiety”; the share of BTC supply in profit rose from 46% to 71%; and the amount of BTC that hadn’t moved in over a year grew by 340,000 coins. Long-term holders aren’t selling, even as prices rise.
3. But there’s a wall overhead: the last-moved prices of around 1.7 million BTC are clustered between $89,600 and $93,700, slightly above the current price, forming a dense supply zone. The report puts it plainly: whether BTC can break through the $90,000–$94,000 range on strong volume will be the dividing line for Q4.
4. ETH is holding up well too: it rose 71% in Q3, gaining about 20 percentage points more than BTC. Its NUPL recovered from the capitulation zone at -0.31 to 0.22, while U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw net inflows of $3.1 billion in Q3.
My take: The most valuable part of this report isn’t its “bullish on Q4” conclusion, but the two clear sets of conditions it lays out for validating that view. The bullish scenario requires the Fed to pause after its September rate hike, core PCE to cool, a high-volume breakout above the $90,000 supply zone, and continued ETF inflows. The bearish scenario: 10-year Treasury yields climb toward 5.5%, oil stays at $90, BTC falls below its 200-day moving average (around $71,000), and ETFs see renewed outflows. For retail investors, rather than guessing which way things will go, it’s better to keep an eye on these signals: can BTC hold above $90,000, are Treasury yields rising, and are ETF flows positive or negative? The report also leaves itself some room for caution: 8 of 9 on-chain indicator groups point to short-term consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Check the volume before chasing the rally.
Data as of: 2026-10-17 04:00 UTC
Sources: ChainCatcher; CoinPost (original report: Coinbase Institutional × Glassnode, Q4 2026 Market Outlook, published October 15)
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
Do you think BTC can get above $90,000 before the end of the year?
Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional jointly released their Q4 market outlook on October 15. Their central view: BTC has moved from bottoming into an early recovery, and they remain positive on Q4. A few key data points:
1. BTC rose 43% in Q3 to close at $83,600, outperforming gold and U.S. stocks. The report argues that this rally was driven not by a recovery in risk appetite, but by demand for alternatives to the U.S. dollar: BTC’s daily return correlation with gold was 0.61, and with the U.S. Dollar Index it was -0.43.
2. On-chain sentiment has clearly improved: NUPL rose from 0.11 to 0.38, moving from “Hope/Fear” back to “Optimism/Anxiety”; the share of BTC supply in profit rose from 46% to 71%; and the amount of BTC that hadn’t moved in over a year grew by 340,000 coins. Long-term holders aren’t selling, even as prices rise.
3. But there’s a wall overhead: the last-moved prices of around 1.7 million BTC are clustered between $89,600 and $93,700, slightly above the current price, forming a dense supply zone. The report puts it plainly: whether BTC can break through the $90,000–$94,000 range on strong volume will be the dividing line for Q4.
4. ETH is holding up well too: it rose 71% in Q3, gaining about 20 percentage points more than BTC. Its NUPL recovered from the capitulation zone at -0.31 to 0.22, while U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw net inflows of $3.1 billion in Q3.
My take: The most valuable part of this report isn’t its “bullish on Q4” conclusion, but the two clear sets of conditions it lays out for validating that view. The bullish scenario requires the Fed to pause after its September rate hike, core PCE to cool, a high-volume breakout above the $90,000 supply zone, and continued ETF inflows. The bearish scenario: 10-year Treasury yields climb toward 5.5%, oil stays at $90, BTC falls below its 200-day moving average (around $71,000), and ETFs see renewed outflows. For retail investors, rather than guessing which way things will go, it’s better to keep an eye on these signals: can BTC hold above $90,000, are Treasury yields rising, and are ETF flows positive or negative? The report also leaves itself some room for caution: 8 of 9 on-chain indicator groups point to short-term consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Check the volume before chasing the rally.
Data as of: 2026-10-17 04:00 UTC
Sources: ChainCatcher; CoinPost (original report: Coinbase Institutional × Glassnode, Q4 2026 Market Outlook, published October 15)
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
Do you think BTC can get above $90,000 before the end of the year?