Whales are desperately stocking up, while shorts are aggressively adding to their positions—$BTC is stuck at $82,000, and both sides think the other is wrong.
Take a look at the latest on-chain data:
1️⃣ Whale wallet count hits an all-time high: According to Santiment, there are now 20,338 wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC—the highest number ever. The figure has been rising since mid-July, with this group adding more than 85,000 BTC in just three weeks. This pace of accumulation has occurred only twice in the past year.
2️⃣ Short bets reach their highest level since 2025 began: Binance’s BTC funding rate has turned negative, falling to -0.0073%. Bearish sentiment in derivatives is at its strongest since June last year, when BTC was still at $62,000. The shorts’ reasoning is straightforward: inflation data came in hotter than expected, so they’re betting on a November FOMC rate hike and another sell-off in risk assets.
The historical context is interesting: The last time funding rates were this negative was in June this year. BTC then climbed from $62,000 to $87,000, and the shorts got squeezed. But this time there’s a genuine wildcard—the November 5 FOMC meeting, the first rate decision since Warsh took office. No one can say for sure whether rates will go up.
My take: Whales are looking at supply and demand on a quarterly time frame, while shorts are betting on macro events over the next three weeks. They’re not even playing on the same field. Retail investors have just two signals to watch: whether ETF flows stop bleeding (U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of more than $500 million in the first half of October), and whether funding rates keep deteriorating or start to normalize. One side is bound to be spectacularly wrong, but waiting for signals beats guessing which side it’ll be.
Data as of: 2026-10-17 15:30 UTC
Sources: Santiment’s weekly on-chain report (reported by BlockchainReporter and Blockcast); Binance funding rates (reported by DailyCoinPost)
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
#Bitcoin
Which side are you on? Let’s talk in the comments 👇
Take a look at the latest on-chain data:
1️⃣ Whale wallet count hits an all-time high: According to Santiment, there are now 20,338 wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC—the highest number ever. The figure has been rising since mid-July, with this group adding more than 85,000 BTC in just three weeks. This pace of accumulation has occurred only twice in the past year.
2️⃣ Short bets reach their highest level since 2025 began: Binance’s BTC funding rate has turned negative, falling to -0.0073%. Bearish sentiment in derivatives is at its strongest since June last year, when BTC was still at $62,000. The shorts’ reasoning is straightforward: inflation data came in hotter than expected, so they’re betting on a November FOMC rate hike and another sell-off in risk assets.
The historical context is interesting: The last time funding rates were this negative was in June this year. BTC then climbed from $62,000 to $87,000, and the shorts got squeezed. But this time there’s a genuine wildcard—the November 5 FOMC meeting, the first rate decision since Warsh took office. No one can say for sure whether rates will go up.
My take: Whales are looking at supply and demand on a quarterly time frame, while shorts are betting on macro events over the next three weeks. They’re not even playing on the same field. Retail investors have just two signals to watch: whether ETF flows stop bleeding (U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of more than $500 million in the first half of October), and whether funding rates keep deteriorating or start to normalize. One side is bound to be spectacularly wrong, but waiting for signals beats guessing which side it’ll be.
Data as of: 2026-10-17 15:30 UTC
Sources: Santiment’s weekly on-chain report (reported by BlockchainReporter and Blockcast); Binance funding rates (reported by DailyCoinPost)
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
#Bitcoin
Which side are you on? Let’s talk in the comments 👇