The S&P median has quietly dropped 15%
The median stock in the S&P 500—the ones nobody can name—is already down 15% from its 52-week high, its worst showing since the dot-com bubble. The index is being propped up entirely by a handful of AI giants, while the equal-weight index has underperformed the market-cap-weighted index by 6% over six months. Morgan Stanley’s Wilson put it bluntly: the effect of tighter financial conditions is much like raising rates, and all the pressure is landing on ordinary stocks. The equity risk premium has fallen below zero, so compared with Treasuries, stocks can’t even be called cheap on valuation anymore.
It’s exactly like the altcoin season that never came: liquidity has been sucked up by the biggest names. They bleed you dry while going nowhere; everything else struggles to keep up, and the second- and third-tier names in the ecosystem have been quietly bleeding out for ages. Nominal GDP is still strong and corporate earnings are still growing, but valuation compression hits peripheral assets first. Next, either the heavyweight stocks catch down and drag the index with them, or the junk stocks get a dead-cat bounce before going back to sleep. Until real rates come down, every rally is just a chance to get out alive.
What’s your cost basis on the alts you’re holding? Are you planning to tough it out until that 2027 unlock supply hits, or cut your losses now and switch to BTC?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The median stock in the S&P 500—the ones nobody can name—is already down 15% from its 52-week high, its worst showing since the dot-com bubble. The index is being propped up entirely by a handful of AI giants, while the equal-weight index has underperformed the market-cap-weighted index by 6% over six months. Morgan Stanley’s Wilson put it bluntly: the effect of tighter financial conditions is much like raising rates, and all the pressure is landing on ordinary stocks. The equity risk premium has fallen below zero, so compared with Treasuries, stocks can’t even be called cheap on valuation anymore.
It’s exactly like the altcoin season that never came: liquidity has been sucked up by the biggest names. They bleed you dry while going nowhere; everything else struggles to keep up, and the second- and third-tier names in the ecosystem have been quietly bleeding out for ages. Nominal GDP is still strong and corporate earnings are still growing, but valuation compression hits peripheral assets first. Next, either the heavyweight stocks catch down and drag the index with them, or the junk stocks get a dead-cat bounce before going back to sleep. Until real rates come down, every rally is just a chance to get out alive.
What’s your cost basis on the alts you’re holding? Are you planning to tough it out until that 2027 unlock supply hits, or cut your losses now and switch to BTC?
$BTC $ETH $SOL