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#美国PPI同比升至6.3%
Don't let 6.3% scare you. The truly scary numbers are on another line: services PPI rose 0.8% month over month, and core PPI was up 5.0% year over year.
Energy is just a smokescreen. Gasoline jumped 20.3% in a month, but oil prices can fall after rising. It's transportation and warehousing up 3.4%, along with sticky services inflation, that leave the Fed unable to “wait and see.”
The timeline looks even worse:
October 14: CPI at 3.7%, above expectations;
October 15: PPI at 6.3%, also above expectations;
October 27–28: FOMC meeting.
On Polymarket, the odds of a rate hike in October have climbed from near zero to 28%. A month ago, no one believed it; now no one dares ignore it.
BTC briefly fell below $81,000 that day, hitting a low of $80,154 and closing down 3.4%. Rate-cut expectations have shifted from “how many cuts this year?” to “thank goodness if they just don’t hike again.”
In a nutshell: energy is an external shock; services inflation is homegrown stickiness. With both running hot, 80k is the short-term line between life and death. Don't bet on a direction before the FOMC—first, see whether 80k holds.
#美国PPI同比升至6.3%
Don't let 6.3% scare you. The truly scary numbers are on another line: services PPI rose 0.8% month over month, and core PPI was up 5.0% year over year.
Energy is just a smokescreen. Gasoline jumped 20.3% in a month, but oil prices can fall after rising. It's transportation and warehousing up 3.4%, along with sticky services inflation, that leave the Fed unable to “wait and see.”
The timeline looks even worse:
October 14: CPI at 3.7%, above expectations;
October 15: PPI at 6.3%, also above expectations;
October 27–28: FOMC meeting.
On Polymarket, the odds of a rate hike in October have climbed from near zero to 28%. A month ago, no one believed it; now no one dares ignore it.
BTC briefly fell below $81,000 that day, hitting a low of $80,154 and closing down 3.4%. Rate-cut expectations have shifted from “how many cuts this year?” to “thank goodness if they just don’t hike again.”
In a nutshell: energy is an external shock; services inflation is homegrown stickiness. With both running hot, 80k is the short-term line between life and death. Don't bet on a direction before the FOMC—first, see whether 80k holds.
