On October 12, the daily active addresses for $ADA fell from 27,248 to 15,977—a drop of 41%. The figures came from Santiment and were posted by Ali Martinez, then picked up by several media outlets.
Five days have passed, and I haven’t seen an updated version of that figure. The price, however, has responded, falling to 0.222.
In the same thread, large holders reduced their positions by 110 million tokens. At current prices, that’s not a huge amount. What really stands out is the 41% drop in activity.
Twelve days ago, I wrote about the same thing at 0.267: when the price rose to 0.27, on-chain transactions had already started cooling off. That call was right. The same logic still holds now, but with the RSI at 21, the risk-reward for chasing a short is already far too poor.
What would prove me wrong: daily active addresses climbing back above 20,000, or a daily close back above 0.23. The first would break the thesis that participation has collapsed; the second would show that buyers are taking the lead on price.
#ADA #Cardano
Five days have passed, and I haven’t seen an updated version of that figure. The price, however, has responded, falling to 0.222.
In the same thread, large holders reduced their positions by 110 million tokens. At current prices, that’s not a huge amount. What really stands out is the 41% drop in activity.
Twelve days ago, I wrote about the same thing at 0.267: when the price rose to 0.27, on-chain transactions had already started cooling off. That call was right. The same logic still holds now, but with the RSI at 21, the risk-reward for chasing a short is already far too poor.
What would prove me wrong: daily active addresses climbing back above 20,000, or a daily close back above 0.23. The first would break the thesis that participation has collapsed; the second would show that buyers are taking the lead on price.
#ADA #Cardano