Stablecoin growth may not be held back by regulation, but instead drawn away by bank deposit rates. A working paper published by the Bank for International Settlements, based on weekly U.S. data from January 2019 to June 2025, found an association between rising bank deposit rates and slower stablecoin market-cap growth, after controlling for factors such as the price of $BTC , Treasury yields, and financial market conditions.
The specific figures are worth considering: according to the baseline model, a one-basis-point increase in the average deposit rate in a given week corresponds to the cumulative growth in stablecoin market capitalization over the following ten weeks falling from an average of around 15% to about 12%. Note that this is slower growth, not a decline in market capitalization. This suggests that funds may not be leaving on a large scale; rather, the flow of new money may simply be slowing. For holders, bank deposits and stablecoins appear to be substitutes, at least to some extent, as places to put their money.
Even more interesting is the difference between them: USDC responds more strongly to deposit rates than USDT. This may suggest that their holders and use cases differ: one is more closely tied to comparisons with traditional financial returns, while the other is more geared toward trading and cross-border transfers. Of course, the paper also explicitly cautions that this does not establish that the total amount of bank deposits or lending has declined. The sample covers only one high-interest-rate cycle, so the findings need to be tested against more data. When considering what comes next for stablecoins, the interest-rate environment may be an easily overlooked factor.
#稳定币 #USDC #USDT #BIS
$USDT $USDC
The specific figures are worth considering: according to the baseline model, a one-basis-point increase in the average deposit rate in a given week corresponds to the cumulative growth in stablecoin market capitalization over the following ten weeks falling from an average of around 15% to about 12%. Note that this is slower growth, not a decline in market capitalization. This suggests that funds may not be leaving on a large scale; rather, the flow of new money may simply be slowing. For holders, bank deposits and stablecoins appear to be substitutes, at least to some extent, as places to put their money.
Even more interesting is the difference between them: USDC responds more strongly to deposit rates than USDT. This may suggest that their holders and use cases differ: one is more closely tied to comparisons with traditional financial returns, while the other is more geared toward trading and cross-border transfers. Of course, the paper also explicitly cautions that this does not establish that the total amount of bank deposits or lending has declined. The sample covers only one high-interest-rate cycle, so the findings need to be tested against more data. When considering what comes next for stablecoins, the interest-rate environment may be an easily overlooked factor.
#稳定币 #USDC #USDT #BIS
$USDT $USDC