Why do so many people say the crypto market has a “four-year cycle”?
Here’s how I see it: a “cycle” is a summary of past price movements, not a rule written into the protocol. There are few data points, and conditions change, so past patterns don’t necessarily repeat in the future.
The idea of a “four-year cycle” in crypto is often linked to Bitcoin’s halving, which happens roughly every four years, but there have only been a handful of cycles to draw on.
My rule of thumb: don’t add leverage recklessly when the market is hot, and don’t increase your position just to break even when it’s quiet.
Many people use the price movements of $BTC to describe the current phase of the entire crypto market.
#BTC
Here’s how I see it: a “cycle” is a summary of past price movements, not a rule written into the protocol. There are few data points, and conditions change, so past patterns don’t necessarily repeat in the future.
The idea of a “four-year cycle” in crypto is often linked to Bitcoin’s halving, which happens roughly every four years, but there have only been a handful of cycles to draw on.
My rule of thumb: don’t add leverage recklessly when the market is hot, and don’t increase your position just to break even when it’s quiet.
Many people use the price movements of $BTC to describe the current phase of the entire crypto market.
#BTC