Cycle education: The halving is not a countdown to a bull market
Bitcoin’s halving changes the rate of new issuance. It doesn’t automatically increase buying pressure, nor does it immediately cut the circulating supply in half. Past market cycles have also been shaped by liquidity, leverage, and risk appetite.
So buying or selling based on the number of months after a previous halving can lead you to mistake correlation for causation.
My framework: assess supply through issuance, demand through capital flows, and fragility through leverage. Test each separately rather than using a single date to predict the top. Past performance does not guarantee future results. #MarketCycles
Bitcoin’s halving changes the rate of new issuance. It doesn’t automatically increase buying pressure, nor does it immediately cut the circulating supply in half. Past market cycles have also been shaped by liquidity, leverage, and risk appetite.
So buying or selling based on the number of months after a previous halving can lead you to mistake correlation for causation.
My framework: assess supply through issuance, demand through capital flows, and fragility through leverage. Test each separately rather than using a single date to predict the top. Past performance does not guarantee future results. #MarketCycles