Has Bitcoin’s “interest-rate resistance” myth been shattered? Correlation hits a record high, but prices fall across the board!
When the correlation between Bitcoin and 10-year real Treasury yields hit an all-time high of 0.6, many thought it had finally become a “macro asset.”
But Fidelity Digital Assets’ latest report reveals an awkward twist: during a critical window when credit spreads widened by 25 basis points amid credit stress in AI infrastructure, Bitcoin fell regardless of which way yields moved—it failed the test.
What does this mean?
The narrative that Bitcoin is “interest-rate resistant” or an “alternative safe haven” is being contradicted by reality. When its correlation suddenly surged above 0.6 from near zero or even negative levels, the market thought it was beginning to reflect U.S. fiscal pressures and real interest rates in tandem. But when an actual credit crunch hit—especially financing pressure from AI capital expenditures—Bitcoin still showed its true colors as a risk asset, falling alongside contracting liquidity.
The data is stark: correlation broke records, but prices didn’t move in line with yields. This isn’t simply a case of “correlation breaking down”; it’s a reminder that a huge divide remains between Bitcoin’s macro narrative and micro-level liquidity.
What really deserves attention now isn’t whether the correlation will climb even higher, but whether Bitcoin will “fail to deliver” again the next time spreads widen.#比特币 #利率
When the correlation between Bitcoin and 10-year real Treasury yields hit an all-time high of 0.6, many thought it had finally become a “macro asset.”
But Fidelity Digital Assets’ latest report reveals an awkward twist: during a critical window when credit spreads widened by 25 basis points amid credit stress in AI infrastructure, Bitcoin fell regardless of which way yields moved—it failed the test.
What does this mean?
The narrative that Bitcoin is “interest-rate resistant” or an “alternative safe haven” is being contradicted by reality. When its correlation suddenly surged above 0.6 from near zero or even negative levels, the market thought it was beginning to reflect U.S. fiscal pressures and real interest rates in tandem. But when an actual credit crunch hit—especially financing pressure from AI capital expenditures—Bitcoin still showed its true colors as a risk asset, falling alongside contracting liquidity.
The data is stark: correlation broke records, but prices didn’t move in line with yields. This isn’t simply a case of “correlation breaking down”; it’s a reminder that a huge divide remains between Bitcoin’s macro narrative and micro-level liquidity.
What really deserves attention now isn’t whether the correlation will climb even higher, but whether Bitcoin will “fail to deliver” again the next time spreads widen.#比特币 #利率