Many people think BTC has bottomed at $60,000, after all, it bounced both times it tested that level.
But if you’re only looking at the $60,000 figure, you may be missing the bigger picture. I believe BTC is forming a large trading range on the weekly chart, and that range is ultimately headed downward—with a target of 50000.
Why do I think so? Let’s break down the reasoning step by step.
1. How did this trading range form?
(1) Lower boundary: 60000
The first time BTC fell to around 60000, the price was rejected and bounced. The second time it tested 60000, it was rejected again. What does it mean when the price bounces after testing the same level twice?
This shows that selling pressure around 60000 is weakening and supply is dwindling. That's also why the second rebound was strong enough to surge all the way to 87000—the selling pressure below had been almost fully absorbed.
But note: being rejected twice only defines the lower boundary; it doesn't mean this is the bottom.
(2) Upper boundary: 83000
BTC's first rebound to around 83000 was also rejected, defining the top of the trading range.
Now we're making a second attempt to break through the resistance around 83000. There are two possible scenarios: either the price drops straight back down, confirming the top of the trading range, or we get another fake breakout that briefly pushes to a new high before falling back. Either way, it won't change the formation of the larger trading-range structure.
2. What's the purpose of this trading range?
Put simply, this large trading range is where the big players accumulate.
The big players will repeatedly cap the price within this range, making you feel like it can't go any higher or lower, wearing down your patience during the long sideways stretch. The direction will only truly be chosen once most people can no longer take it and give up their coins.
So within this range, I'll keep looking for opportunities to short—because the overall direction will ultimately be down.
3. Why is the ultimate target 50000?
The main reason for targeting 50000 is the liquidity map.
The liquidity map shows a large concentration of long-term liquidity around 50000. If the price falls there, it will serve two purposes:
First, it will flush out traders with weak conviction. In the bearish atmosphere of a large trading range, those who can't keep their composure will have already sold their BTC.
Second, it will flush out traders with strong conviction. When the price plunges below 50000 in a panic, even those who were previously very confident may start to waver—"The bear market is really here"—and sell along with everyone else.
On top of that, the big players can also take out the liquidity of long-term bulls around 50000.
Three birds with one stone. That's why I'm watching 50000.
Note: This article is a personal technical analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and views may change at any time as market conditions evolve. Make investment decisions based on your own risk tolerance, and be sure to set take-profit and stop-loss levels.