$TSLA Tesla fell 7.6% during Friday’s U.S. session, but this isn’t really about Tesla itself. It’s about how the oil–Nasdaq–crypto stocks–BTC chain played out.
All data is from Gate perpetuals:
Oil (CL) is around 98.87, up 3.5% over 24 hours. Around midnight last night, volume surged to about 9.11 million U; price rose from 96.8 to 98.7. At 8 a.m. this morning, volume hit about 5.96 million U again, sending price up in a spike to 101.28 before it quickly fell back to around 99.
Nasdaq (QQQ) is around 711.8, down 2.5% over 24 hours. It kept sliding after the market opened at 9 p.m.; the 1 a.m. candle saw about 2.39 million U in volume and pushed it down to around 713.
TSLA is around 353.6. At 9 p.m. it saw about 3.37 million U in volume, then about 2.67 million U at 10 p.m., plunging from 375 straight to 361. It never climbed back after that.
Crypto stocks were hit even harder: MSTR is around 136.85 (-7.2%), and COIN around 173.96 (-4.2%).
BTC is around 81,630, down just 0.56%. The 1 a.m. candle saw about 820 million U in volume, pushing it to a daily low of 80,778 before it recovered to above 81,500.
The sequence is clear: oil rose first, pushing up inflation expectations and putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. Crypto stocks are essentially tech stocks with added leverage; MSTR’s decline was more than ten times BTC’s. This time, BTC was actually the most resilient of the lot.
My take:
U.S. stock markets are closed over the weekend, and these stock perpetuals are trading on thin volume. TSLA has recently seen mostly only tens of thousands of U in hourly volume, so its price isn’t very meaningful as a reference.
Don’t take BTC’s resilience over the weekend as evidence that it has decoupled. The real test comes when U.S. stocks open on Monday night.
If oil holds above 99 and the Nasdaq can’t reclaim 718 (where it broke down at 11 p.m. Friday), crypto stocks will probably stay weak on Monday, and BTC may retest 80,778.
If oil falls back below 96 (the range it was in before last night’s rally), then this pressure will have eased.
Buying TSLA or MSTR perpetuals over the weekend means trading into a market with no counterparties. I’m staying away.
Looking back at my post about $MSTR last night: I said oil was pushing rates up, crypto stocks would fall first, and not to buy the dip (MSTR was around 137.26 at the time). It hit a low of 134.38 at 3 a.m., so “don’t buy the dip” was right; it’s now back at 136.85, basically where it started. The “oil pushing rates up” part wasn’t confirmed: TLT barely traded on Gate and was only up 0.44%, so there’s no sign yields were surging. This time, the pressure on crypto stocks looks more like tech-stock selling than interest rates.
For macro observation only; not investment advice.
All data is from Gate perpetuals:
Oil (CL) is around 98.87, up 3.5% over 24 hours. Around midnight last night, volume surged to about 9.11 million U; price rose from 96.8 to 98.7. At 8 a.m. this morning, volume hit about 5.96 million U again, sending price up in a spike to 101.28 before it quickly fell back to around 99.
Nasdaq (QQQ) is around 711.8, down 2.5% over 24 hours. It kept sliding after the market opened at 9 p.m.; the 1 a.m. candle saw about 2.39 million U in volume and pushed it down to around 713.
TSLA is around 353.6. At 9 p.m. it saw about 3.37 million U in volume, then about 2.67 million U at 10 p.m., plunging from 375 straight to 361. It never climbed back after that.
Crypto stocks were hit even harder: MSTR is around 136.85 (-7.2%), and COIN around 173.96 (-4.2%).
BTC is around 81,630, down just 0.56%. The 1 a.m. candle saw about 820 million U in volume, pushing it to a daily low of 80,778 before it recovered to above 81,500.
The sequence is clear: oil rose first, pushing up inflation expectations and putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. Crypto stocks are essentially tech stocks with added leverage; MSTR’s decline was more than ten times BTC’s. This time, BTC was actually the most resilient of the lot.
My take:
U.S. stock markets are closed over the weekend, and these stock perpetuals are trading on thin volume. TSLA has recently seen mostly only tens of thousands of U in hourly volume, so its price isn’t very meaningful as a reference.
Don’t take BTC’s resilience over the weekend as evidence that it has decoupled. The real test comes when U.S. stocks open on Monday night.
If oil holds above 99 and the Nasdaq can’t reclaim 718 (where it broke down at 11 p.m. Friday), crypto stocks will probably stay weak on Monday, and BTC may retest 80,778.
If oil falls back below 96 (the range it was in before last night’s rally), then this pressure will have eased.
Buying TSLA or MSTR perpetuals over the weekend means trading into a market with no counterparties. I’m staying away.
Looking back at my post about $MSTR last night: I said oil was pushing rates up, crypto stocks would fall first, and not to buy the dip (MSTR was around 137.26 at the time). It hit a low of 134.38 at 3 a.m., so “don’t buy the dip” was right; it’s now back at 136.85, basically where it started. The “oil pushing rates up” part wasn’t confirmed: TLT barely traded on Gate and was only up 0.44%, so there’s no sign yields were surging. This time, the pressure on crypto stocks looks more like tech-stock selling than interest rates.
For macro observation only; not investment advice.