Replacing the inner display costs 7,998 yuan. I looked up the repair estimates Apple posted for its first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, on its official website. They went up just two days ago. On the same page, the estimate for “Other Damage” is 11,998 yuan—enough to buy an iPhone 18 Pro Max and still have money left over.

The battery costs 1,898 yuan, the most expensive in iPhone history. Apple’s website also slipped in a reminder: you really should buy AppleCare+. For users in the US, replacing the inner display costs just $19, or about 127 yuan.

Preorders opened at 8 p.m. the following evening. Apple’s website and app were overwhelmed again, and one reporter didn’t get into the purchase page until 12 minutes later. Pickup slots for launch day vanished in seconds, and every store around Shanghai showed no availability. In less than half an hour, delivery orders were backed up until late January next year. A veteran Apple fan who’d managed to snag one every year came up empty this time. He told The Paper that some stock was visible, but there probably wasn’t much. Apple’s website still offers 24-month installments, starting at 667 yuan a month. The most expensive iPhone ever, spread across monthly payments, costs about as much as a mid-range phone.

Scalpers moved faster than deliveries. Once the first batch sold out, several other online platforms showed the phone as out of stock. On Dewu, presale transactions for multiple versions topped 20,000 yuan. The 1TB version approached 29,000 yuan—7,143 yuan more than its 21,499-yuan official price—while even the entry-level model rose by nearly 40%. Across the four official storage tiers, the price difference from the base model to the top model is 10,500 yuan. The tiers people are scrambling for are the most expensive ones.

My take: Apple deliberately limited the launch supply, and the premium is part of the cost they’ve factored in. This can hardly be called an unexpected frenzy. The crypto world knows this playbook well: whitelists, “scientists,” front-running—every step is familiar. The iPhone Duo swaps tokens for phones and minting for presales; the supply-and-demand mechanics haven’t changed. The real signal is hidden in the repair price list: Apple knows better than anyone how delicate this phone is.

I don’t know how many units Apple released in the first batch; the company hasn’t said. No one knows how long Dewu’s near-29,000-yuan transaction price will hold after the official launch, either. Marketplace transaction prices don’t reflect the whole market, and the sample is small. The only thing I can say for sure is that when it officially goes on sale on the 23rd, that repair estimate on Apple’s website won’t drop by a single yuan, no matter how many people scramble for one.

On the day of the presale, Cook was in Shanghai, visiting miHoYo to watch engineers demonstrate playing games on the phone. In an earlier interview, he said he was very excited to see how the product would perform in the Chinese market. He’s seen just how enthusiastic Chinese buyers are. Apple still hasn’t said how many units it released in the first batch.

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