Let me pour a little cold water on this first: high-bought holders stopping their selling does not mean a bull market is on the way.
On-chain data shows that the share of coins held for 6–12 months flowing to exchanges fell steadily from 40.4% in mid-June to 4.4% in mid-October, while monthly transfer volume stayed between 140,000 and 210,000 $BTC . These figures do indeed suggest that those who bought near the 2025 top have largely stopped selling at a loss or taking profits, tilting the balance of selling pressure.
But let’s complete the chain of logic: weakening selling pressure means only that “resistance is disappearing,” not that “upward momentum is emerging.” Analysts themselves acknowledge that the market still needs fresh buyers to drive prices higher—and those buyers have yet to show up in any meaningful way. In other words, sellers have gone quiet while buyers sit on the sidelines: a stalemate. Translating “nobody’s selling” directly into “prices are about to rise” is a classic bait-and-switch.
The deeper structural question is this: does the low 4.4% inflow reflect holders locking up their coins out of confidence, or passively sitting tight because they’re deeply underwater? These two scenarios look identical in on-chain data, but what happens next could be worlds apart. In the first case, a recovery in prices could encourage more holders to keep their coins off the market. In the second, any rebound near their cost basis could trigger a fresh wave of break-even selling. Current data can’t distinguish between the two, so neither one-sided narrative holds up.
So my view is that this is a necessary condition for forming a bottom, not a sufficient one. The real signal to watch is the pace of new money coming in—not the silence of old holders.
Over to you: do you think these high-bought holders truly believe in the market, or are they just waiting to break even and get out?
$BTC #比特币 #On-chain data
$NVDB $MSFTB #Cryptocurrency
On-chain data shows that the share of coins held for 6–12 months flowing to exchanges fell steadily from 40.4% in mid-June to 4.4% in mid-October, while monthly transfer volume stayed between 140,000 and 210,000 $BTC . These figures do indeed suggest that those who bought near the 2025 top have largely stopped selling at a loss or taking profits, tilting the balance of selling pressure.
But let’s complete the chain of logic: weakening selling pressure means only that “resistance is disappearing,” not that “upward momentum is emerging.” Analysts themselves acknowledge that the market still needs fresh buyers to drive prices higher—and those buyers have yet to show up in any meaningful way. In other words, sellers have gone quiet while buyers sit on the sidelines: a stalemate. Translating “nobody’s selling” directly into “prices are about to rise” is a classic bait-and-switch.
The deeper structural question is this: does the low 4.4% inflow reflect holders locking up their coins out of confidence, or passively sitting tight because they’re deeply underwater? These two scenarios look identical in on-chain data, but what happens next could be worlds apart. In the first case, a recovery in prices could encourage more holders to keep their coins off the market. In the second, any rebound near their cost basis could trigger a fresh wave of break-even selling. Current data can’t distinguish between the two, so neither one-sided narrative holds up.
So my view is that this is a necessary condition for forming a bottom, not a sufficient one. The real signal to watch is the pace of new money coming in—not the silence of old holders.
Over to you: do you think these high-bought holders truly believe in the market, or are they just waiting to break even and get out?
$BTC #比特币 #On-chain data
$NVDB $MSFTB #Cryptocurrency