Starting today, the people at the Fed who set interest rates are barred from speaking publicly about rates. They’ll have to keep quiet until October 29.
The meeting starts on the 27th and runs for two days. The outcome is still up in the air, but an on-chain betting market has already posted its odds: 86.5% for no change, 13.5% for a 25-basis-point hike. The platform settles in USDC, runs on Polygon, and it’s the kind where once you place your bet, that’s it.
At its September meeting, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 3.75%–4.00%. All 12 voting members were in favor. The minutes weren’t released until last week, and most participants thought another rate hike before year-end might be appropriate.
Officials are keeping the door open, but the market has moved its money elsewhere. After the minutes came out, PCE inflation came in slightly below expectations, and nonfarm employment also slowed. The odds of a rate hike this month were slashed. But inflation hasn’t thrown in the towel. In this week’s Beige Book, prices rose sharply in 3 of the 12 Federal Reserve districts and moderately in 8; 4 districts said prices were rising faster than in the previous reporting period. Diesel prices remain high, and fuel surcharges are passing costs down the supply chain. That’s what the Fed’s own survey says, so no one dares rule out that 13.5% tail risk.
Crypto is waiting for the same answer. Bitcoin is at $81,654, down 0.74% on the day. Ethereum is at 2,434, and SOL at 104.95; both are down. Among major coins, the only one bucking the trend is TRX, up just 0.33%—less than one percent.
The same market also has a contract betting that Bitcoin will close above $80,000 today, currently priced at 99.5%. With the macro picture still unresolved, bettors seem to think it’ll just sit there.
My read is that these two sets of prices are really about the same thing. Officials are keeping the door open to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored. The market is betting on no change because it believes the latest data are softer than the minutes suggested. Neither side is saying inflation is over; 86.5% just means no move this time. That uncertainty is what wears on risk assets the most. When bad news finally lands, it’s easier to deal with; what’s hard is this seemingly endless wait.
What I’m unsure about is how the data will come in over the next ten days. Officials are muzzled during the blackout, but CPI and nonfarm payrolls will still be released. Either one could knock that 86.5% off course. Also, this market is thin: daily trading volume on the on-chain market is only a few hundred thousand dollars. I took an afternoon snapshot, and odds often change by the close, so don’t treat the decimal point as gospel.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #币安广场 #比特币 #美联储 #预测市场 #ETH
The meeting starts on the 27th and runs for two days. The outcome is still up in the air, but an on-chain betting market has already posted its odds: 86.5% for no change, 13.5% for a 25-basis-point hike. The platform settles in USDC, runs on Polygon, and it’s the kind where once you place your bet, that’s it.
At its September meeting, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 3.75%–4.00%. All 12 voting members were in favor. The minutes weren’t released until last week, and most participants thought another rate hike before year-end might be appropriate.
Officials are keeping the door open, but the market has moved its money elsewhere. After the minutes came out, PCE inflation came in slightly below expectations, and nonfarm employment also slowed. The odds of a rate hike this month were slashed. But inflation hasn’t thrown in the towel. In this week’s Beige Book, prices rose sharply in 3 of the 12 Federal Reserve districts and moderately in 8; 4 districts said prices were rising faster than in the previous reporting period. Diesel prices remain high, and fuel surcharges are passing costs down the supply chain. That’s what the Fed’s own survey says, so no one dares rule out that 13.5% tail risk.
Crypto is waiting for the same answer. Bitcoin is at $81,654, down 0.74% on the day. Ethereum is at 2,434, and SOL at 104.95; both are down. Among major coins, the only one bucking the trend is TRX, up just 0.33%—less than one percent.
The same market also has a contract betting that Bitcoin will close above $80,000 today, currently priced at 99.5%. With the macro picture still unresolved, bettors seem to think it’ll just sit there.
My read is that these two sets of prices are really about the same thing. Officials are keeping the door open to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored. The market is betting on no change because it believes the latest data are softer than the minutes suggested. Neither side is saying inflation is over; 86.5% just means no move this time. That uncertainty is what wears on risk assets the most. When bad news finally lands, it’s easier to deal with; what’s hard is this seemingly endless wait.
What I’m unsure about is how the data will come in over the next ten days. Officials are muzzled during the blackout, but CPI and nonfarm payrolls will still be released. Either one could knock that 86.5% off course. Also, this market is thin: daily trading volume on the on-chain market is only a few hundred thousand dollars. I took an afternoon snapshot, and odds often change by the close, so don’t treat the decimal point as gospel.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #币安广场 #比特币 #美联储 #预测市场 #ETH