Please note: the capital market is rapidly shifting to “US midterm election trading”!
Over the next two months, I believe there are two opportunities that ordinary people truly should pay attention to: going long oil on dips, while shorting US stocks at historical highs.
Bold prediction: after the midterm election ends, once political price discounts come to an end and international conditions heat up again, Brent crude $BZ may have a chance to push toward $100; under extreme geopolitical conflict, even $120–150 is not out of the question.
1. Why have I been keeping my eyes on oil all along?
In peacetime, oil is a commodity; but in times of war and worsening geopolitical tensions, oil turns into a strategic resource. The real backstop demand is not only from companies and consumers, but also from countries’ strategic reserves and military needs—essentially a nation-level must-have.
2. Yesterday, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly higher; technology stocks regained leadership. The key reasons are that US Treasury yields have been falling consecutively and international oil prices have dropped significantly.
The day before, the market was trading an escalation in the US–Iran conflict, but in an instant it switched to trading “peace expectations.” Pakistan and Qatar have both released positive signals one after another, and the US is also preparing to redeploy some diplomatic personnel back to the Middle East.
For the capital markets, the key is not whether the US–Iran talks ultimately can be made, but rather this: the market’s pricing for the worst-case scenario is declining.
3. In May this year, I told everyone to buy gold at 900 near the bottom; since then, gold has started a bull market. In June, I also suggested following PetroChina and Sinopec to start buying oil, and over the following month, oil prices quickly surged toward around $95.
These two months are an excellent second chance this year to position in oil. Trump will lower oil prices to pressure them for votes, especially US crude $CL , while also needing to maintain stability in the stock market so it doesn’t crash.
Therefore, this is an opportunity for us ordinary people to ride the trend.
#比特币受阻于81000美元50周均线 #石油 $XAU