MSCI kicking them out? The old playbook: drop first to show respect
The market had already voted with its feet on MicroStrategy being removed from the MSCI index—MSTR dropped 9.56% yesterday to get ahead of it. KOLs say it’s being priced in early; by the time the passive selling pressure actually hits, it might not even crater. Nobody pays attention to net mNAV in normal times, but the moment it dips below 1, people start yelling insolvency. That’s how they scared everyone during the June sell-off. There’s enough cash on hand to cover three years of dividends, and with BTC’s cost basis at $75,000, they’re still sitting on unrealized gains. Want to see net mNAV fall below 1 again? Unlikely.
Looking at the chart, this MSTR sell-off seems more like market makers using the news to shake out weak hands. A 9.56% drop has cleared out most of the leveraged longs who lacked conviction. In the short term, MSTR will likely chop around its net asset value. If net mNAV really falls below 1, that’s more likely a chance to scoop up bloodied shares than a sign of further collapse—the room for a rebound is greater than the risk of another leg down. The $75,000 cost basis is firm support. Follow the broader market, and don’t hand over your shares in a panic.
If you’re still holding MSTR, drop your cost basis—let’s see who’s lining up on the rooftop?
$BTC $MSTR $ETH
The market had already voted with its feet on MicroStrategy being removed from the MSCI index—MSTR dropped 9.56% yesterday to get ahead of it. KOLs say it’s being priced in early; by the time the passive selling pressure actually hits, it might not even crater. Nobody pays attention to net mNAV in normal times, but the moment it dips below 1, people start yelling insolvency. That’s how they scared everyone during the June sell-off. There’s enough cash on hand to cover three years of dividends, and with BTC’s cost basis at $75,000, they’re still sitting on unrealized gains. Want to see net mNAV fall below 1 again? Unlikely.
Looking at the chart, this MSTR sell-off seems more like market makers using the news to shake out weak hands. A 9.56% drop has cleared out most of the leveraged longs who lacked conviction. In the short term, MSTR will likely chop around its net asset value. If net mNAV really falls below 1, that’s more likely a chance to scoop up bloodied shares than a sign of further collapse—the room for a rebound is greater than the risk of another leg down. The $75,000 cost basis is firm support. Follow the broader market, and don’t hand over your shares in a panic.
If you’re still holding MSTR, drop your cost basis—let’s see who’s lining up on the rooftop?
$BTC $MSTR $ETH