【Review】BNB got the direction right, but the plan never triggered
Last night at 21:00, I wrote that BNB was making lower highs and that I’d consider placing a short order on a rebound to 748. The direction was right: afterward, the price fell to a low of 718.54 (Binance 1h, 10-17 01:00), just shy of target one at 720.
But to be honest, the highest it rebounded afterward was only 731, so the planned short order never triggered. Getting the direction right but not catching the move is as good as getting it wrong.
What went wrong? I set the short entry too greedily in a strong resistance zone. The rebound was so weak it didn’t even reach the lower edge.
Recalculated plan for today (Binance, 12:33, current price 722.11):
① Structure: 4H highs and lows are still moving lower.
② Price levels: The resistance trendline has moved down to 730.7, bringing the resistance zone down to 734–738.
③ Positioning: The long/short account ratio for BNB futures is 2.48, and the funding rate is 0. Longs aren’t crowded, but they haven’t exited either.
Revised plan: Consider placing a small short order near 736 on a rebound, with a stop-loss at 742.5 and target one at 708.6.
Alternative: If the price drops into the 707–710 support zone and forms a lower wick, consider placing a small long order, with a stop-loss at 700.
Invalidation condition: If a 4H candle closes above 742.5, admit the short thesis is wrong and exit.
Should limit orders be placed closer to the current price, or is it better to miss the trade than chase it?
Source: Binance market data and Binance futures data
#BNB #TechnicalAnalysis
📈 Top three futures gainers (12:33): $AGT +143.94%｜$ICNT +60.56%｜$Q +30.87%
#BinanceSquare
⚠️ The above is a compilation of information and personal opinions, and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
Last night at 21:00, I wrote that BNB was making lower highs and that I’d consider placing a short order on a rebound to 748. The direction was right: afterward, the price fell to a low of 718.54 (Binance 1h, 10-17 01:00), just shy of target one at 720.
But to be honest, the highest it rebounded afterward was only 731, so the planned short order never triggered. Getting the direction right but not catching the move is as good as getting it wrong.
What went wrong? I set the short entry too greedily in a strong resistance zone. The rebound was so weak it didn’t even reach the lower edge.
Recalculated plan for today (Binance, 12:33, current price 722.11):
① Structure: 4H highs and lows are still moving lower.
② Price levels: The resistance trendline has moved down to 730.7, bringing the resistance zone down to 734–738.
③ Positioning: The long/short account ratio for BNB futures is 2.48, and the funding rate is 0. Longs aren’t crowded, but they haven’t exited either.
Revised plan: Consider placing a small short order near 736 on a rebound, with a stop-loss at 742.5 and target one at 708.6.
Alternative: If the price drops into the 707–710 support zone and forms a lower wick, consider placing a small long order, with a stop-loss at 700.
Invalidation condition: If a 4H candle closes above 742.5, admit the short thesis is wrong and exit.
Should limit orders be placed closer to the current price, or is it better to miss the trade than chase it?
Source: Binance market data and Binance futures data
#BNB #TechnicalAnalysis
📈 Top three futures gainers (12:33): $AGT +143.94%｜$ICNT +60.56%｜$Q +30.87%
#BinanceSquare
⚠️ The above is a compilation of information and personal opinions, and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.